A crucial pivot of the insurgency in the Balochistan province, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, was killed along with 38 insurgents during a military operation in the Chalgri area of Bhamboor Hills in Dera Bugti District on August 26, 2006. At least 21 security force (SF) personnel, including a Colonel, two Majors and three Captains, were also killed in the intense clashes. More than 24 insurgents were wounded and subsequently arrested. Disputing these numbers, a spokesman of the Marri tribe, Najeed Marri, told Dawn from Kohlu that 140 people from the Bugti and Marri tribes had been killed in the air and ground operations. He identified the area of the operation as Karmowadh, 45 kilometres from Kahan, headquarters of the Marri tribe.
The 79 year-old Nawab Bugti, leader of the dominant Bugti tribe and a former Chief Minister of Balochistan, went underground in 2005, and was since directing the armed insurgency, which has claimed more than 700 lives in 2005-06.
“Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti was killed in the operation along with some family members,” Federal Minister for Information, Mohammad Ali Durrani, confirmed to the media. Senator Agha Shahid Bugti, son-in-law of Nawab Bugti also confirmed the killing. Contrary to preliminary media reports, Balaach Khan Marri, another leader of the insurgency, managed to escape. Bugti's two grandsons – leaders of the tribe and of the insurgency in their own rights – who were initially reported killed, are also believed to have escaped alive. While there has been a great deal of secrecy imposed by Islamabad on reportage from Balochistan, the news of Nawab Bugti’s death was, predictably, flashed across the media, both domestic and international.
The military has not, till the time of writing, released the dead body of Nawab Bugti. A spokesman announced in Islamabad after a high-level meeting chaired by President Pervez Musharraf that Bugti's body would be handed over to relatives for burial as soon as it could be retrieved from the rubble of the cave where he died. The delay in releasing the body is in itself is becoming a volatile issue, with some sources in Balochistan expressing apprehensions that Bugti may have been killed in custody, rather than during the operations. Given the volatile atmosphere in Balochistan, the Army would also be concerned that Bugti’s funerary rites could become the focus of massive demonstrations against Islamabad.
SFs reportedly commenced operations in the Bhambhoor area on August 24 with heavy weapons and continuous strafing by helicopter gun-ships. According to Dawn, “helicopter gun-ships targeted the Chalgri area of Bhambhoor mountains and dropped troops who took action in the area. Armed militants of Marri and Bugti tribes resisted the troops and heavy fighting was reported for several hours. Nawab Bugti and many others were killed when helicopter gun-ships dropped bombs at their hideout.” Unnamed Pakistani military officials said they traced the location of Nawab Bugti through a satellite tracking system.
In the immediate aftermath of Nawab Bugti’s death, described by some Pakistani analysts as an assassination, three streams of reaction are crystallizing. Protest demonstrations and rioting were reported from many parts of the beleaguered province. Protests, mostly violent, were also reported from the dominantly Baloch area of Lyari in Karachi. Areas bordering Balochistan in Sindh and Punjab also witnessed protests with sporadic rioting. The enraged Baloch protestors have reportedly burnt dozens of shops, banks and Government vehicles in Quetta, capital of Balochistan, and in other cities since Bugti's death was announced on August 26-evening. Suleman Sayed, Quetta's police chief, disclosed that more than 450 rioters had been arrested by the morning of August 27. One person died and six police personnel and five protesters were wounded after they exchanged gunfire in Quetta, currently under curfew. All train services to and from Balochistan have reportedly been cancelled until further notice. An alliance of four Baloch nationalist groups has announced a 15-day mourning period and declared that protests would continue across the region. At the other end, Baloch insurgents are, according to sources, preparing for an appropriate riposte and large-scale violence is predicted. "The government has pushed Balochistan into a never-ending war," said Hasil Bizinjo, a prominent insurgent leader.
Leaders of major opposition parties, including Makhdoom Amin Faheem of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Hafiz Hussain Ahmed of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), expressed shock and grief over the death and restated their rejection of the use of force in Balochistan. The London-based Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) leader Altaf Hussain condemned the Nawab Bugti killing and called for negotiations to resolve the insurgency. The Chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, Raja Zafar-ul-Haq, stated that the situation was similar to the obstinate and unreasonable attitude adopted by General Yayha Khan, which led to the loss of East Pakistan. Senior PPP leaders Amin Fahim and Raja Rabbani also warned against the emergence of ‘a 1971-like situation’ which resulted in the creation of Bangladesh. What has alarmed the political parties in Pakistan is the fact that such a senior leader has never before been neutralized by the establishment, with the exception of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who was hanged by General Zia-ul-Haq. A political realignment, consequently, appears increasingly likely and the Balochistan provincial Government could collapse. Addressing an emergency press conference in Islamabad on August 27, senior MMA leader Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haidri termed Bugti’s death a “national tragedy in the history of Pakistan… the biggest instance of cruelty and despotism” adding that his alliance was "seriously contemplating" quitting the coalition Government in Balochistan. If the MQM also decides on a similar course of action, the coalition in Sindh province could also collapse. Some of the Baloch leaders have also said that they will vote in favour of the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz in the National Assembly on August 29, thereby increasing the pressure on the military regime.
Bugti, an alumnus of the Oxford University, who oscillated between parliamentary democracy and armed insurgency, was a symbol of Baloch nationalism. While the internecine contest between the Bugti and Marri tribes has persisted for centuries, Nawab Bugti now emerges as a martyr for the Baloch at large, and this could unite the warring tribal groups, leading to a nationalist consolidation. Personal animosities between Attaullah Mengal, another Baloch nationalist leader, and Bugti, had long stood in the way of a united front, but with Bugti’s death, Baloch Ittihad (unity) becomes a greater possibility. Significantly, sources disclose that Mengal has gone underground. Whether he takes up the mantle of leadership is still uncertain, but he is no longer available at the Mengal house in Karachi.
Violence, both in the immediate and long term, can, consequently, escalate. The aged Bugti’s unnatural and violent end at the hands of the state’s forces will provoke – and already has provoked – a natural backlash. However, it remains to be seen whether massive and indiscriminate repression by Islamabad can, in fact, quell the mounting protests and resentment.
To the extent that Islamabad fails to crush the rebellion by outright carnage, Baloch violence is expected to escalate in the foreseeable future, as avenues for a political settlement shut down. The insurgency can also be expected to adapt and follow new contours. Traditionally, each Baloch tribe has sought to limit itself to defensive operations within its own area of domination, but recent months had seen several groups operating outside their own areas, albeit within Balochistan. While expansion of the movement outside Baloch areas would require a shift in the tribal mindset, Baloch guerrillas may be gradually be ‘squeezed out’ into Pakistan’s other provinces, creating alliances with other anti-state forces, and attacking state infrastructure and establishments in a much wider geographical area.
Entirely in line with past declarations, General Musharraf termed Bugti’s killing a "great victory" and congratulated the SFs for the ‘achievement’. It is ironic that a regime which is negotiating with a far more menacing terrorist movement in Waziristan chooses to take such an uncompromising hard line against insurgent groups that seek fairly limited goals within the Pakistani rubric. This may, of course, reflect a realpolitik assessment on General Musharraf’s part that, while he can win in Balochistan by purely military means, the outcome in Waziristan is far more uncertain, and the costs of confrontation too high.
If Musharraf’s repression does not succeed in Balochistan, Bugti’s death will mark the beginnings of a greater consolidation of nationalist forces and a shift in tactics, from conventional guerrilla warfare – which is much more susceptible to detection and neutralization – to more decentralized and subversive means, including the targeting of infrastructure and assets outside Balochistan, and in urban concentrations, as well as an effort to bring in other groups, such as the Sindhis, the Seraikis, the Pashtun, and other disaffected political formations, into a broader insurgency. There is a danger, moreover, that the secular-nationalist Baloch movement may also see the influence of radical Islamist parties such as the MMA, which have, till now, remained restricted to the Pashtun areas of the North, growing in the Baloch areas of South Balochistan.
In an interview to the Karachi-based Newsline in February 2005, Nawab Bugti had said: “General Sahib [Pervez Musharraf] has promised to hit us in such a way that we will not know what hit us. In one sense it is quick death that he is promising us. They could do this to a few Baloch leaders, but not the whole Baloch nation.” His promised ‘quick death’ has come, but in death, as in life, he appears poised to remain the rallying force for the Baloch.
The writer is a Research Fellow at Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi, India.
Courtesy : South Asia Terrorism Portal
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