A nation that does not learn from its experiences, especially such traumas as terror entails, is condemned to be revisited by them. The experience with Pakistan has been that it had denied that it has ever been involved in promoting terror in India. All evidence provided to it in the past has been denied and rejected out of hand. Not surprisingly, even before the ink dried on the Havana declaration the Pakistan High Commissioner in India stuck to the old tune in a television interview.
It means we must learn to handle Pak-sponsored terrorism on our own. The tap of terrorism cannot be shut off, at least overnight, and all those modules, cells, and individuals who had received training in explosives and terror tactics will continue to plague us for long time to come. We will have to depend on our own ingenuity to try and make it difficult for terrorists to strike high-value targets or communal hotspots. When thus forced to attack “soft targets” like innocent bystanders and crowds in holy places, the terrorist begins to alienate himself.
Let the joint mechanism just signed with Pakistan remain what an Indian official says as ‘an address where our complaints can now be delivered’. To its credit it must be said Pakistan always acknowledged our complaints but always asserted that allegation was baseless. Pakistan High Commissioner said in the (Post-Havana) interview that his government examined every one of India’s complaints and found them to be baseless. So receipt of complaints is not the point.
The point is that despite our complaints cross-border terrorism has not stopped. Infiltration across the LOC continues apace. But with a difference. Unlike in the past, Pakistan Army no longer facilitates infiltration with a barrage of artillery. It has changed tack; more and more Pakistani army personnel are let into Jammu and Kashmir even as the mujahids—trained jehadis -- are falling in larger numbers to Indian security forces. The persistent demand that the Indian army be withdrawn from the Valley is an indicator that it has done a good job of making it difficult for Pak game plan to succeed.
Just let it be that way. And over time, if we successfully intercept the infiltrators at the Line of Control itself, the so-called “struggle for self-determination” will begin to peter out and it will become obvious that Pakistan is failing in its game plan.
How will a “joint mechanism” work? It will for instance, if Musharraf regime hands over at least some of the 20 most wanted criminals who have found sanctuary in Pakistan. Top among them is Dawood Ibrahim. That is how a “joint mechanism” should work. If it doesn’t, then it doesn’t.
Pak army has just signed an agreement with the Taliban based in Waziristan tribal belt south of Durand Line. The accord virtually places sovereignty of the area in the hands of Taliban. Remember Pak establishment has been denying the Taliban presence in the tribal belt even after joining the US led war against terrorism. Musharraf has thus planted a thorn in Afghan flesh. It is his second U-turn in foreign policy matters --- the first being distancing from the Taliban after 9/11 attacks on the United States. So much for US pressure on him.
India therefore has to play its cards carefully. Unorthodoxically as well. It is no longer a question of trust but one of realpolitik. The Americans have come to terms with Pakistan-based terrorists; they will mount pressure on India to do likewise. The first pressure-point will be at Siachen where Pakistan has been trying to wrong foot India by seeking a withdrawal to positions held at the time of Shimla agreement.
Pakistan wants that military personnel should be included in the next round of bilateral talks. The demand makes sense only if both sides accept the ‘actual positions’ on the glacier and delineate them on maps. Things like joint patrolling and aerial reconnaissance to detect intrusions can follow.
If this does not happen, it will mean clearly that Musharraf’s position after the agreement with the Taliban has hardened to a point of no return. What will follow will be a recrudescence of cross border terrorism in keeping with the comment made by Pakistan Foreign Minister Kasuri that terrorism will not stop till there is progress in Kashmir.
Post-Havana, Maulana Masood has threatened to take his brand of jehad into India. His threat has to be taken seriously. Because, he is the founder of Jaish-e-Mohammad and a close friend of Osama bin Laden. India had gifted him his freedom in a trade off during the Kandahar hijack episode. These days he calls his outfit as Markaz ud Dawa, and is enjoying official patronage. Other groups like the Hizbul Mujahideen and the Lashkar-e-Toiba have also been saying that they will not be bound by any agreement Pakistan signs on Kashmir with India. “Our jehadi against India will continue”, they are saying.
If they stick to their guns, there is nothing to show that peace will descend if we sign any agreement with Musharraf. Deniability of Pak involvement in specific acts of terror is a matter of State policy. Nonetheless, it is possible to ignore it if credible methodologies are set in place for such withdrawal from Siachen (an agreement on current positions) or peace and tranquillity during Ramzan.
It is possible that the deal on joint mechanism on terrorism was signed at Havana on the basis of some concrete assurances given by Musharraf to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. As is his habit Musharraf must have said: “Trust me”. This would be one more time that India has taken him at his word. The last time was on Kargil.
Courtesy : Syndicate Features
Printer-Friendly Version
