If Musharraf is only repeating what is being discussed away from the media glare through Track II diplomacy he is jeopardising the outcome of the efforts of quiet effort. Many believe that the key to finding a solution to Kashmir lies in narrowing down differences between the two countries. That will require Musharraf to take the on-going Track II exercise with some seriousness and resist the temptation to pop up on the small screen grandstanding on Kashmir.

By now he should have well realised that recycling the same proposals on Kashmir under different names has become pointless. Both Pakistan politicians and the Islamists and Jihadis waging acts of terrorisms against India in the name of ‘freedom’ for Kashmir invariably challenge his offers of ‘concessions’ on Kashmir.

Musharraf’s ‘solutions’ have no relation to ground realities. How does he think, for instance, any mechanism for ‘joint supervision’ or ‘joint control’ in Kashmir can be set up involving two diametrically opposite countries: one driven by a combination of military men and religious forces neither of whom particular about democracy, and the other a secular country of vast diversity with a functioning though chaotic democracy.

His advocacy of ‘autonomy’, ‘self-governance’ or ‘self-rule’ as also demilitarisation is obviously a move to rid Kashmir of the presence of all Indian security forces. He has never realised that India cannot even think of any out of the box solution as long as the blood-thirsty ‘freedom fighters’ are not bottled up. The entire Pakistani establishment supports the idea that Pakistan cannot withdraw support to the ‘freedom struggle’ in Kashmir because that is Pakistan’s trump card against India.

It is all very well for Gen Musharraf to ask India to show ‘flexibility’ on Kashmir or ‘reciprocate’ Pakistan’s proposals, but he cannot pretend that his ‘out of box’ solutions for settling the Kashmir issue enjoy the backing of major political and religious quarters, not to mention his own army or the Jihadis who continue to be patronised by his ISI in the fond hope of annexing Kashmir.

His latest four-point formula for resolving the Kashmir issue has evoked a fair degree of scepticism in India but a loud condemnation from the Jihadis and many Islam-centred groups and mainstream political parties in Pakistan, all of whom accused him of a ‘sell out’. Musharraf may be a powerful ruler of Pakistan but obviously he is unable to first prepare people in his own country to jettison their old views on the Kashmir.

The vehemence of negative reaction within Pakistan to Musharraf’s ‘solution’ forced a statement by his Foreign Office that Islamabad had not changed its stand on Kashmir one bit. There are loud and clear indications that even in the most unlikely event of India agreeing to whatever he proposes on Kashmir, it will almost certainly be disowned by Musharraf’s successor.

The Pakistan president himself has been a master of repudiation of commitments and initiatives of the previous governments. One of his first statements made soon after deposing Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif was to disclaim the Shimla pact. He also went back on the declaration by the then prime ministers of India and Pakistan, Atal Bihari Vajapyee and Nawaz Sharif, after the former had travelled in a bus to Lahore on a landmark journey prior to the Musharraf-engineered Kargil war.

If the Shimla pact was expected to lead to the final settlement of the Kashmir issue with Pakistan accepting the Line of Control as the international border, the Lahore declaration was seen as a precursor to easier flow of people between the two neighbours. Musharraf disowned these pacts saying that whatever happened in Simla 35 years ago was a submissive act by a vanquished nation under duress and the Lahore declaration was not binding.

So, there is nothing to prevent his successor or successors from rejecting on the basis of the precedent set by Musharraf himself whatever India and Pakistan may agree on Kashmir today. But that stage looks hypothetical when the pressure groups of Islamists and Jihadis in Pakistan insists that Pakistan continue to support the anti-India militants since ‘the right to self-determination’ would never be given up by the Kashmiris on either side of LoC. That the United Nations itself—and now even the European Union—thinks that plebiscite is no longer a practical solution for Kashmir is unknown to the Jihadis many of whom actually dream of an ‘independent’ Kashmir that even Pakistan is not willing to concede.

The Jihadis in Pakistan may be getting desperate for their own reasons. Some reports in the Pakistani media have suggested that they are not getting that many volunteers for carrying out acts of terrorism in India. The ISI too is unable to act freely in their support because of the focus it has drawn on its activities from the international community. The reduction in heavy subsidies from the ISI to the militant and separatist groups in Kashmir has also led to tensions within those groups.

Some analysts think that Musharraf likes to publicly air his proposals on Kashmir in the hope that his ‘sincerity’ in seeking a quick solution to the imbroglio is accepted in Pakistan and Kashmir. And in the West too. This might help him in silencing the rising crescendo of criticism against his rule at home.

As of now, the unstoppable unrest in Balochistan is adding to his problems as he gets ready to extend his term for another five years even as he comes under increasing pressure from the West to end his terror machine which operates not only against India but also Afghanistan much to the annoyance of the US and European governments.

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