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OPINION

Blame game for SAARC failure
M. RAMA RAO

The 14th SAARC summit held at the imposing Vigyan Bhavan in Delhi has ended, like all the past summits, with no headline grabbing announcements. All the promises we have been hearing right from the time Indira Gandhi grudgingly accepted Bangladesh President Zia-ur-Rehman’s suggestion to set up a regional forum for south Asian nations, were repeated amidst calls for result oriented action. What is wrong with SAARC?

The problem is in the expectations. Any one familiar with the evolution of regional groupings in other parts of the world will readily agree that such summits are not one day cricket. Nor do they offer instant nirvana for all the ills afflicting bilateral ties of member countries.

Frankly, when two countries are unable to resolve their dispute, it is unfair to expect them to give up the bilateral blinkers while attending a summit.

Patience and perseverance are essential in multi-lateral context. This is the message that comes loud and clear from the erstwhile GAAT and the present day WTO. When negotiations under WTO refuse to progress on issues like agriculture products and subsidies, it is patently unfair to expect a fledgling SAARC to blossom into an ASEAN.

Trade is the key to cooperation. All South Asian countries look to India for a share in its huge market. For them India is a white knight in shining armour. Because of India’s market size and central location, 80 percent of intra-regional trade in South Asia is to or from India.

All of India’s neighbours share a concern about being overwhelmed by Indian goods. Ask anyone of them whether India has thrown open its market doors and the reply will be a resounding no.

Whether it is Sri Lanka or Bangladesh or even Nepal, every one of them has a litany of complaints. Foreign Office mandarins may claim Bhutan is happy dealing with India. Well that tiny Himalayan Kingdom, now on its way to a full fledged democracy, let us be honest just for once, is a bit player. And, in fact, its economy survives on imports from India and it has very little to export other than timber, honey and liquor.

So much so, to put the blame at the door step of Pakistan for the failure of SAFTA to take off is unfair. Also, by repeatedly blaming Pakistan that it is refusing to give MFN status to India, we achieve nothing.

Safta requires India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to bring their duties down to 20 per cent in the first phase of the two-year period ending in 2007. In the final five-year phase ending in 2012, the 20 per cent duty will be reduced to zero through a series of annual cuts.

The remaining five least developing countries get an additional three years to reach zero duty level. But SAFTA has become a diplomatic foot ball between India and Pakistan.

The World Bank is a strong votary of SAFTA. It believes that SAFTA could potentially help reduce conflicts, and promote better political ties among neighbours, especially India and Pakistan, while helping the two countries to switch trade from informal to formal channels. At present, the bulk of India-Pakistan trade is routed through Dubai.

Trade is a two-way street. But most Indian businessmen and trade bureaucracy want to make trade a one-way street. There in lies the rub. India has its own set of non-tariff barriers to help it retain or even gain competitive advantage. These are naturally seen by our neighbours as unfair.

During the fiscal 2006-07, Indian exports to Pakistan touched the billion-dollar mark. But imports from that country were worth no more than $ 350 million. Unfortunately, nobody in the Udyog Bhavan, the headquarters of our commerce ministry, care to look at the dismal trade picture with their thinking cap. Nepal’s Terai region is home to a large number of industries which have come up with an eye on Indian market. These industries range from Vanaspati to hot rolled coils. Most of these ventures are owned by Indians either directly or in collaboration with locals.

Yet, Indian trade chambers have been vigorously lobbying for restricting imports from Nepal on the plea that such imports undermine our own production base. Bangladesh ran up a deficit of $1.1 billion in 2002-03. It widened to $1.5 billion in 2005-06.

The fact of the matter is that it is time for India to do some soul searching. And it must give up the tendency for one-upmanship. The announcement by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh about duty free access to goods from the least developed countries (LDCs) of SAARC is, frankly, neither here nor there.

Firstly, the offer is going to be effective from 2008 and not immediately. Secondly, it doesn’t hold out any guarantee that Delhi will not impose any informal trade barriers or border restrictions. India has announced free access to several categories of South Asians like journalists.

Hopefully the bureaucracy will give concrete shape to the announcement. This raider is understandable because Home Ministry babus are known to throw spanners in the way of visas for Fulbright scholars.

Suffice to say, as the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told the SAARC summit, connectivity – physical, economic and of the mind will enable the region to fully tap its potential. It is a matter that brooks no delay as the dragon is virtually capturing the markets by dumping its products that range from medicine to pen cells and toys all priced low.



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