The unexpected intensity of opposition to this simple ‘administrative expedient’ disguises the tremendous reservoirs of public anger that have built up over Musharraf’s eight year’s of autocracy and his systematic, albeit covert, use of violent non-state proxies in a strategy of political management that has exploited, at once, the rhetoric and constituencies, both of the ‘war against terrorism’ and of Islamist extremism. Over the years, there has been a visible augmentation of the power of radical Islamist forces in the country, including dubious Musharraf proxies in the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, as well as a progressive Talibanization that has now reached into the heart of Islamabad.

On May 12, 2007, Pakistan’s commercial capital Karachi exploded in orchestrated violence when the sacked Chief Justice (CJ), Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, arrived in the city to attend a rally organised by High Court lawyers and opposition parties. Sensing a threat, the Musharraf regime resorted to the established device of using proxies in an effort to intimidate protestors, even as Chaudhry was detained at the Karachi Air Port and prevented from attending the rally. Armed cadres, principally believed to be drawn from the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) which heads the provincial Government in Sindh, and is a partner in the ruling Federal Coalition, received tacit state support as they went on a rampage in Karachi, attacking opposition party workers and media organisations, in violence that eventually left at least 42 dead and over 150 wounded. Babar Awan, a legislator from the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), articulated widespread perceptions when he declared, "It was a state-sponsored massacre and the sitting regime is to be blamed for it." The All Parties Minorities Alliance (APMA) Chairman, Shahbaz Bhatti, similarly declared that the "Government deliberately stoked the violence against political parties." Numerous reports suggest that no effort was made to contain the rampaging mobs and, as an Associated Press report expressed it, "There was no sign of intervention from security forces, who authorities said were 15,000 strong in the city."

A call for a countrywide strike on May 14, 2007, has been issued by opposition parties to protest the violence in Karachi, and initial reports suggest that Karachi – with security forces under orders to shoot anyone involved in serious violence – has virtually shut down. The City’s Police Chief, Azhar Farooqi admitted, "The city is totally paralyzed. Shops are closed and very little public transport is on the roads. People are scared." Preliminary reports also suggest significant support for the strike from other cities and towns of Sindh, as well as in Quetta, Lahore and Peshawar.

Ominously, the second day of violence in Karachi saw the killings acquiring a sectarian and ethnic colour, with most attacks occurring in areas dominated by Pathans. Karachi has a long history of ethnic and sectarian violence and has also been a hotbed of Islamist extremist mobilisation. Armies of trained jihadis prepared in the port city’s proliferating madrassas have participated in the terrorist campaigns in Afghanistan and Indian Jammu & Kashmir, as well as in relentless sectarian warfare within the country. Year 2006 alone saw numerous acts of terrorist violence and activity in the city , the most prominent including three suicide attacks:

March 2, 2006:
A US diplomat, identified as David Fyfe, his Pakistani driver and a Rangers official were killed and 54 persons injured in a suicide car bombing near the US consulate in Karachi, a day before the US President George W. Bush’s visit to Pakistan. The blast occurred behind the Marriott Hotel and in front of the Naval Central Surgery a few yards away from the Consulate.

April 11, 2006:
At least 57 people, including prominent religious personalities, were killed and more than 50 persons sustained injuries, in a suicide bomb attack at Nishtar Park in Karachi. The blast occurred at a stage erected in the park where religious leaders and hundreds of faithful were offering evening prayers on the occasion on Prophet Mohammad's birth anniversary. Prominent religious personalities, including Tehrik Awam Ahl-e-Sunnat chief Haji Mohammad Hanif Billo, Iftikhar Bhatti, Abbas Qadri, Akram Qadri and Hafiz Mohammd Taqi, died in the blast.

July 14, 2006:
A suicide bomber killed a high profile Shia scholar and political leader, Allama Hasan Turabi, along with his nephew near his residence in Abbas town in the Sindh province. Three policemen are also wounded in the attack.

The troubles in Karachi come at a particularly bad time for Musharraf. He has promised presidential elections within two months – indeed, CJ Chaudhry’s summary dismissal was connected with the anticipation of his possible judicial obstruction of another Presidential term for Musharraf – and has already seen a steady erosion of his authority in his protracted standoff with the Talibanized cadres, including both male and female fidayeen, of the Lal Masjid–Jamia Hafsa, in Islamabad itself . The holding of a credible election within the declared timeframe (reiterated in Musharraf’s speech on May 12, 2007) is highly unlikely; on the other hand, Musharraf’s re-election by the present Parliament – an alternative escape route – would have little legitimacy either within the country or abroad, and can only further undermine his authority.

Islamabad’s difficulties and incapacity against the forces of radical Islam in other theatres are also deepening. Both military action and deal-making with extremist factions have failed to contain the crisis in Waziristan, and there is increasing evidence of "a clear dispersal of the violence linked to radical Islam across hitherto ‘peaceful’ areas. Violence and mobilization linked to Islamist extremists is now being increasingly reported from Swat, Nowshera, Tank, Peshawar, Hangu, Dera Ismail Khan, and other areas in the NWFP, Gujranwala and Multan in the Punjab province, many locations in Sindh province, and also from the national capital, Islamabad." Simmering sub-nationalist movements in Balochistan and in Gilgit-Baltistan add to the impression of a cumulative loss of control. Significantly, Pakistan witnessed more than a doubling of terrorism-related fatalities in 2006, at 1471 killed, as against 648 in 2005. The first four months of 2007 have already seen 706 killed, including 266 civilians, 59 Security Forces’ personnel and 381 terrorists/insurgents.

After the Karachi violence, Ijaz Hussain, an Islamabad-based political analyst noted, "Pakistan is heading towards disaster and President Musharraf is responsible." With a continuous erosion of his international image as well as his domestic legitimacy, Musharraf’s old ways of coping appear to be reaching their limits. The crisis over the sacked CJ and the associated violence in Karachi is crystallizing into a nationwide confrontation between the regime and its various proxies, on the one hand, and an increasingly – though possibly opportunistically – united opposition, on the other, imposing sever limits on the efficacy of repressive state responses and covert intimidation through terrorist proxies. Musharraf may, of course, be able to battle his way out of the current crisis – he has described the controversies over the ‘suspended’ CJ as a "temporary irritant". But he will emerge significantly weakened by his self-inflicted wounds, and the vultures will certainly begin circling more closely in the wake of his present predicament.

The writer is the Executive Director, Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi, India

Courtesy : South Asia Terrorism Portal

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