Expectedly, Nawaz Sharif was euphoric. He said from his London perch, ‘the verdict is the beginning of Musharraf’s end. His words would have sounded more convincing but for the fact that Musharraf still remains a darling of the US administration which has not ‘nominated’ any successor to Musharraf. The US has made exceptionally heavy investment in Pakistan post 9/11; it continues to look at the lisping and crafty General to rule Pakistan while maintaining the myth that Washington is working for restoration of ‘democracy’ in the country founded by Mohammad Ali Jinnah. Whatever be its public posture, America is not really keen to see the military grip on Pakistan weakened because of the other myth that it believes in—that it needs the present Pakistani dictator as its principal ally to fight the ‘war on terror’.

Washington would prefer any day Sharif’s old political foe, Benazir Bhutto, if the choice is restricted to the two former prime ministers, because she has shown better pro-US credentials. Nawaz’s name has been America’s bad books right from the time he had ordered the tit-for-tat nuclear test after India’s Pokharan II in May 1998.

Yes, the court has added to Musharraf’s cup of woes. Much as he hated Nawaz Sharif, whom he had deposed in his October 1999 coup, the General might discover that the Supreme Court verdict would have considerably added to the following of Sharif. At the time Musharraf had ordered Sharif to fly to Saudi Arabia to begin a 10-year exile much of the country had joined him in saying ‘good riddance’ and in reviling and vilifying the deposed prime minister—as also the other former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. The two were described as epitome of corruption, looters and what not.

Now the same maligned Sharif can be sure of receiving a hero’s welcome, whenever he decides to return. And if Musharraf sends his police to greet Sharif at the airport with summons from the jail authorities he would only be helping Sharif in swelling the ranks of his followers.

Musharraf’s other betenoire, Benazir Bhutto, may have welcomed the Augt 23 court order that allows the Sharif brothers to return home and join the battle against Musharraf from home soil but it would certainly not please her to discover that a rejuvenated Nawaz with a record of more determined and open fight against Musharraf can pose a real threat to her at the hustings and in terms of popular ratings. Nawaz is also capable of playing the religious card as he did during his tenure when he toyed with the idea of introducing Sharia laws in Pakistan. Bhutto can, however, counter it by subtly playing the terrorist card that she as prime minister had played against India.

In recent months the two former prime ministers had made some feeble attempts to sink their differences to confront the common enemy—the US-backed rule of Musharraf. Their joint front against Musharraf, never really out of the nebulous stage, could not take any shape and this gave more room to the General for manoeuvres to be a limpet at the Amy House.

An immediate task for Musharraf is to ‘preserve’ and ‘protect’ the ‘King’s party’, as his Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid) is called, from disintegration. This will be a real danger the moment the exiled leaders return home to galvanize the cadres. The ‘Kings’ party’ was formed with defectors largely from Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party who had obviously been attracted by power. Many of them would undoubtedly be tempted to trek back ‘home’ in the changed circumstances to the dismay of Musharraf and his brain’s trust.

So, while he struggles to prevent a mass desertion from his party, the wily General would be scurrying through his re-election with the help of not just the PML (N) but other allies of his including the conglomeration of religious parties, MMA, and the party of Muhajirs, MQM. Musharraf himself is a Muhajir. The MQM remains solidly behind Musharraf and the bunch of clerics who supported him in the national assembly are not very fond of Bhutto at least.

Benazir’s prevarication on the issue of supporting Musharraf’s re-election appears deliberate. With Musharraf’s stock in the country so low at the moment she does not want to be seen going out of the way to help his re-election. Hence, her emphasis on ‘democratic reforms’ before her party votes for Musharraf in the Presidential poll, which might take place most probably between September-October. If these ‘reforms’ fail to come through, will she vote against Musharraf? She has been silent on this.

It is understandable. For Benazir an immediate goal is to get the corruption and other cases against her and her husband, Asif Zardari, instituted by the Musharraf regime, dropped so that after her return to Pakistan she can drive to her home in Karachi rather than one of the prison cells. Equally important it is for her to get the General’s help in getting the constitution amended to remove the clause that prohibits more than two terms of premiership to a candidate.

Her desperation to achieve these two goals nullifies much of the advantage that she might otherwise have enjoyed after the Supreme Court verdict on the Nawaz petition. It also forces her to maintain an ambiguity about her ‘fight’ to usher in an unadulterated civilian rule in the country.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan is all set to see a three-way race for the democracy trophy.

And the result depends on Army, America and Allah, not necessarily in that order.

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