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OPINION

Will Musharraf return to anti-India rhetoric?
ATUL COWSHISH

Washington is said to be deeply worried about the fate of its trusted ‘friend’ in Islamabad, Gen Pervez Musharraf, who suffered a rare humiliating defeat at the hands of the chief justice of the supreme court as his attempts to sack him were frustrated by the court itself. For Musharraf the court verdict came even as Pakistan faced a series of bombings and suicide attacks after ‘Operation Silence’ at Lal Masjid (Red Mosque).

Musharraf is no more the darling of the Pakistani media and its middle and upper classes that he was when he staged his coup in October 1999. The religious parties of fanatics and mullahs who had supported him in the National Assembly (Parliament) have become his strongest critics after the military raid on the infamous Red Mosque in the heart of the Pakistani capital. But there are no bets on his early exit. That may prove to be a bit premature.

The General has indeed received some body blows but he has not been knocked out. His characteristic swagger and bluster may be missing, but he is breathing. As long as George W. Bush is a tenant at the White House, Musharraf need not gasp for oxygen supply even though he becomes more brazen everyday in sheltering the Al Qaeda and Taliban forces in the border areas with Afghanistan. It is sufficient for Bush that once in a while he ‘delivers’, capturing an odd ‘foreign’ Al Qaeda or an ‘Afghan’ Taliban militant, never a Pakistani—and promptly demand cash for his labours.

The US would not like to see him go unless it has found an equally ‘reliable’ successor. The behind the scene exercise to look for a replacement has obviously not made much progress. Given the tough challenges, the man who takes the place of Musharraf has to be another General as a civilian leader will have to lean heavily on the military to stabilise Pakistan. Meanwhile, Musharraf is making his own efforts to recoup fast.

There is no doubt that the street level opposition to him has risen dangerously. Being unfamiliar with the ways of democracy the lack of street level support may not bother him so much as the force of a united opposition with both the mullah army and the so-called secular parties joining hands to demand his removal. But there is a major flaw here. The biggest opposition party, Benazir Bhutto’s People’s Party of Pakistan is refusing to join the rest of the opposition in an alliance against Musharraf.

The prevarication by Bhutto may be the result of a ‘deal’ that she has been reportedly trying to cut—despite denials--with Musharraf. Nothing will suit Musharraf more and his interests will not be served better by anything other than a rift in the opposition phalanx that is preparing to attack him with full force as the day for the presidential election comes nearer.

Other than allowing Bhutto to return home immediately out of fear that she might upstage him, Musharraf might be willing to accept all other terms that the Daughter of the East might impose on him as the price for extending her cooperation to the general. Withdrawal of corruption and other cases against Bhutto and her husband will not be difficult for Musharraf if that helps him win over Bhutto.

If Musharraf finds that his deal with Bhutto does not bring down the level of his unpopularity in the public he has another ace up his sleeve, a time-tested one: up the ante against India. Sufficient hints have already come. His interior minister is already babbling everywhere that the suicide attacks in Pakistan are being carried out by ‘Afghans’ trained by ‘RAW’ in Afghanistan!

There are other officials who take this line, though blaming India for every problem is an old Pakistani pastime since 1947. The Pakistanis are particularly piqued by the popularity of Indians in Afghanistan, the one-time strategic depth of their western frontier.

The Pakistani media, ever reverential towards the General who can order demotion and removal of unfriendly journalists, will be only too happy to join the anti-India chorus. In any case, the Urdu press in Pakistan has never wavered from its ‘patriotic’ duty of pouring venom against India. The Pakistani media routinely names India as the source of rebellion in Balochistan.

The accusing fingers at India are expected to dilute the public wrath against Musharraf and rebuild tension with India. Musharraf could then ratchet up the public mood in his country by more direct verbal assaults on India and, maybe, launch an armed incursion too now that the inventory of his military is overflowing with new US weapons. The US will make some noises but that is about all.

The India bogey galvanizes the Pakistanis like nothing else. The people will all be solidly behind the General and nobody would mind if in such conditions he gets himself re-elected without doffing his military uniform.

If Benazir Bhutto joins him, Musharraf could also think of changes in the Constitution to help his re-election while retaining the post of army chief, the most powerful job in Pakistan. That will not leave any scope for the ‘rebellious’ chief justice to do any harm to the good General, a fear that had led Musharraf to try and sack Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhary in the first place.

Musharraf, not unlike many previous rulers of Pakistan, depends a great deal on the shadowy intelligence wing of the army, the ISI, for furthering his personal and political agenda. The ISI can be trusted to arm-twist the more vulnerable or pliant politicians in the opposition into supporting him at the crunch time even as they are allowed to continue with their anti-Musharraf chant for the time being.

It is significant that though the group of seven religious parties led by Mullahs and Maulanas has reportedly broken away from Musharraf, there are divisions within that group. An agency like the ISI will not find it difficult to tame some of them sufficiently ahead of the coming presidential poll by the year-end.



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