Kashmir has been in the thick of militancy for the last 17 years now. It has seen the worst of times with the blood of innocent people flowing on the streets, old and infirm being dragged out of their homes and shot dead on charges of being informers and families separated without knowing each other’s whereabouts for years on end. In this situation a periodic review of security situation in Kashmir should have been a routine affair. But the Union Home Secretary’s visit to the valley is much more than that.
For two reasons. One it is the new Home Secretary Madhukar Gupta’s first visit to the state. Second, it is coming at a time when security situation in Kashmir is intriguing.
Kashmir has been witnessing a fresh escalation in infiltration from across the Line of Control (LOC) since January this year. But there has not been a corresponding increase in violence, which normally should have been the case. In fact, there has been a decline in the incidents of violence. Are then the militants up to a bigger game sometime later? If that is the case the review assumes importance.
If we go by the statistics, May 2007 recorded maximum infiltration attempts compared to the corresponding period in the last five years. In April this year there were 82 infiltration bids compared to 43 in 2006 and 44 in 2005. This year the Army foiled 3 such attempts but the remaining 79 are presumed to have been successful. That should be a cause of concern because a major chunk of summer, which witnesses infiltration due to melting of snow on the peaks, is yet to be over. Independent estimates put the infiltration figures at approximately 200. Between January to April, 115 militants were killed compared to 161 in the same period last year and 284 in the previous year.
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Only recently, a new militant outfit Al –Qaeda- Hind with a CD in its hands appeared on the scene in a bid to tell the people that Al Qaeda is present in the valley. But the Army has ruled out such a possibility. The state Government and its intelligence agencies too are not inclined to accept that Al Qaeda exists in Jammu and Kashmir. An inquiry has been ordered to establish the veracity of the claim. If there is any truth in it, the situation is drifting and could be dangerous.
The security forces have recovered about 5 thousand kilograms of RDX from militants during the last four years. Of this about 900 kgs were recovered last year alone. That indicates the extent of terrorist activities going on in the state.
The terrorist training camps in POK are very much in place. Whatever Pakistan may say, the camps are churning out militants for being sent to Kashmir on a mission of Jihad. A cleric of the Lal Masjid in Islamabad has corroborated this with a statement in which he said that one lakh suicide bombers are ready for action in Pakistan. Of these 10 thousand are in the two Madrassas controlled by him.
The joint mechanism which Prime Minster Manmohan Singh had offered to Pakistan president General Musharraf in Cuba on the sidelines of the NAM summit last year does not seem to be serving the purpose for which it was formed. Pakistan is not cooperating with India in sharing information to deal with militants, effectively. This only depicts a grim picture of the security scene.
General Musharraf’s domestic troubles too do have a bearing on this. For a while, one may think that domestic pressures will not leave any time for him to flare up violence in Kashmir. That may partly explain the present lull in violence. But this will be true only up to a point. If things get out of his control that could induce the General to push up violence in Kashmir in desperation and to divert the public attention domestically. After all, for his political survival the General will be ready to sacrifice any cause. That is what the power game is all about.
The annual Amar Nath Yatra in Kashmir is getting underway. It will continue for two months. Though beefed up security has already announced by the state government all along the route, the mere magnitude of the Yatra and the terrain will continue to be a big challenge.
It is in this backdrop the demand of some “responsible” politicians in the state for reduction in troop strength has to be viewed. On his part, the Prime Minister has already made it clear that deployment of security forces will depend upon the ground situation. After his second round table conference with Kashmir leaders, Dr Manmohan Singh had set up five working groups. Four of these groups have given the recommendations. The fifth one is about the Center - State relations, which may take some more time to complete its task.
Primarily, the recommendations of the working groups pertain to finding out ways and means to enable the youth of the state, who had crossed over the LOC, to return; to rehabilitate the victims of the militant violence, including the families of the killed militants as well, and a massive economic programme. Delhi has already come out with a Rs. 27000 crore package for J&K to boost employment and prevent the youth from going astray. Despite the good intentions behind the recommendations, some of these have been criticized by the political parties as one sided.
Unfortunately, Pakistan’s half-hearted attitude in the fight against terror is coming in the way of dealing effectively with the menace. Security reviews will be a part of the drill for the administration and the security forces until Pakistan stands firmly by its commitment in letter and spirit to fight out terror.
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