No official determination has been made thus far regarding the group responsible for the terrorist attacks. More interestingly, no claim of responsibility has been made so far. But there are crucial indications that her return from exile has contributed further to an ominous state of play in Pakistan, with state agencies, chief ministers and the ubiquitous Islamist extremists possibly executing dubious roles. At a Press Conference at her residence, Bilawal House, on October 19, Bhutto claimed that ‘three people’ were responsible for the attack, though she has not disclosed their names so far. According to The News, they are Arbab Ghulam Rahim, Chief Minister of Sindh, Chaudhry Perwez Elahi, Chief Minister of Punjab, and Brigadier (retired) Ejaz Shah, Director General of the Intelligence Bureau. Worse, though she did not directly blame the Musharraf regime for the attack, she did not absolve it entirely, declaring: "I suspect that some individuals in the Government may have been involved in the attack." The former premier disclosed that an unnamed "brotherly country" had informed her in advance about the suicide attacks. She added, further, that the ruling Muttahida Quami Movement would have been blamed for the assassination attempt. Benazir also claimed that her sources had informed her that Police commandoes would be used for the next assassination attempt near Bilawal House or in Larkana, her hometown. "They will attack me in the guise of rival party activists and then any rival party may be blamed for that attack," she said. Bhutto’s husband, Asif Ali Zardari, has already blamed a Pakistani intelligence agency for the attacks. "We blame one intelligence agency and we demand action against it... it is not done by militants, it is done by that intelligence agency," Zardari told a private television channel. Further, Nabeel Gabool, a PPP member declared, "This is an act of terrorism, not done by any terrorist but an act of terrorism done by the Government."

In fairness, it is useful to note that every single security protocol was breached by Bhutto and her party enthusiasts. The bullet proof shield was put aside, and numberless party workers, supporters and media persons simply clambered on to the truck to catch a glimpse of her, to shake her hand, or to try to get a quick ‘sound bite’. Moreover, given the prior threats and assessments of the high probability of attack, the sagacity of the triumphal parade is itself in question. As Bhutto’s niece and political opponent, Fatima Bhutto, expressed it, Benazir bears responsibility for the deaths in the attack, since she exposed her followers and security personnel to danger for her own "personal theatre". "She insisted on this grand show, she bears a responsibility for these deaths and for these injuries", she said.

On their part, some officials have said the suicide attacks may have been the work of al Qaeda and the Taliban. Sindh Home Secretary, Brigadier(Retd.) Ghulam Mohammed Mohatarem, was quoted as stating that the attack bore the hallmarks of militants linked to the Waziristan-based Taliban ‘commander’ Baitullah Mehsud and al Qaeda. An unnamed official of the Sindh Government cited intelligence reports that three suicide bombers linked to Mehsud were in Karachi. However, Baitullah, who was earlier accused of threatening Benazir with suicide attacks on her return from exile, denied his involvement in the assassination attempt. Isa Khan, a close aide of Baitullah, told The News from an undisclosed location that "Baitullah Mehsud asked me to issue a statement on his behalf and deny the involvement of his men in the Karachi blasts… We can't even think of killing innocent people."

There are various elements in Pakistan who are opposed to Benazir Bhutto’s return to the political centre-stage. While Benazir is the only opposition leader who supported the military operations on the Red Mosque in Islamabad earlier this year, she is on record as having stated that she would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to question al Qaeda-linked nuclear scientist Dr A. Q. Khan. While her presence as a Musharraf ally had already invited vicious disapproval from the jihadi elements, it is now certain that elements within the Government, both at the federal and provincial levels, and some state agencies, including elements within the Army, also intend to liquidate her. On October 16, Benazir reportedly stated that she fears for her life from the hands of the jihadi elements in the Army and retired army officers. Mohammed Shehzad writes in the Pakistan Media Monitor that "she has unnecessarily antagonized the jihadis as well as the rightwing elements in the society and establishment. In fact, she is provoking the rightwing to kill her." Benazir Bhutto is widely perceived to be a pro-Western leader who is looking to either create and sustain a moderate constituency within Pakistan, or to consolidate the anti-Musharraf platform. Crucial is also the timing of her homecoming: she returns when Pakistan is at a tipping point and at a time when President Musharraf’s grip is at its weakest since he seized power in a bloodless coup eight years ago. All of this translates into a vast ensemble of adversaries.

Benazir, who played a significantly dubious role in the events leading up to the sequel to Pervez Musharraf’s military presidency, will now be a key player in what she claims is "a transition towards democracy." In the Times of London, Benazir stated that she is carrying "a manuscript of a book" which is "a treatise on the reconciliation of the values of Islam and the West and a prescription for a moderate, modern Islam that marginalises extremists, returns the military from politics to their barracks, treats all citizens and especially women equally and selects its leaders by free and fair elections." But, her horrific homecoming has meant that the ‘democratic transition’ has come undone at the outset itself. ‘Transitions’, notwithstanding the American optimism, may not be enough to salvage the situation in Pakistan. A comprehensive transformation – and possibly not the one optimists in the country and abroad are hoping for – is gradually becoming an inevitability.

Political and terrorist violence remains incessant in Pakistan. In a certain sense, Pakistan's commercial capital, Karachi, reflects the spread of terrorism and political violence over the past eight years of President Musharraf’s rule. The capital of the Sindh province has, since the 1980s, been a focal point of tremendous sectarian strife between the majority Sunni and minority Shia Muslims. The metropolis has also been a safe haven for a melange of Islamist extremists linked to al Qaeda and the Taliban. There was an alleged assassination attempt on the life of President Pervez Musharraf here in September 2002, and US journalist Daniel Pearl was abducted and subsequently killed in Karachi in February 2002. Indian mafia don Dawood Ibrahim, the prime accused in the 1992 serial blasts in Mumbai, reportedly has a Karachi address (White House, near Saudi Mosque, Clifton), and it was in Karachi that many al Qaeda operatives, including Ramzi Binalshibh, have been arrested since 9/11. Abu Zubaydah, before his arrest from Faisalabad in March 2002, reportedly oversaw the establishment of al Qaeda cells in Karachi. The city also houses the Binoria mosque complex, which has long been the nerve centre of the military-jihadi enterprise. While Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai (assassinated on May 30, 2004) of Binoria is believed to have been a patron of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), one of his many infamous students, Maulana Masood Azhar, launched the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).

The port-city, with a population of approximately 20 million and counting, has also seen crimes like abduction for ransom, car-jacking and armed robbery increase dramatically in recent years. According to sources, a substantial section of such crime is attributed to people with links to the various political and Islamist extremist groups. Indeed, an elaborate underground economy of terror exists in this city where everything is available – for a price. The multi-ethnic city – mini-Pakistan as it is called – regularly witnesses incidents of terrorist, sectarian, political and organized criminal violence. According to Institute for Conflict Management data, there have been 58 incidents of terrorist violence in 2004, 37 in 2005 107 in 2006 and 96 in 2007 (till October 20). There have also been six suicide attacks in Karachi since 2002. The city has also seen recurring violence targeting western interests. Karachi constitutes an expansive compass and space for radical Islam to flourish.

The city has, for long, been considered an extremely difficult place to police. The Police Force of 29,326 is relatively inadequate and the rapidly changing population profile as well as an intricate web of Islamist terrorist groups compounds the problems of enforcement. The much-beleaguered Karachi Police, according to a June 2004 estimate, was deployed at 2,223 mosques and Imambargahs, and 869 seminaries in the city. Besides, there is also substantial deployment at 103 foreign missions, 31 foreign food outlets, 205 vital installations, 84 temples, 213 churches, 99 multi-national companies and 227 petrol pumps. 100 police mobile vans and 7,000 police personnel are, moreover, engaged in ‘VIP duty’. That leaves precious little for the routine tasks of policing or for aggressive counter-terrorism operations.

Violence and instability in Karachi, which reportedly generates more than 60 per cent of Pakistan’s total revenue collection, has necessary national ramifications. The instability consequent upon terrorist violence adversely affects economic activity and dampens investor sentiment. A more dangerous facet of this escalating instability is that processes of radicalisation, which have been strengthened immensely under the Musharraf regime, will become further entrenched. As and when Benazir and Musharraf decide to operationalise their civil-military alliance against the extremist forces, they would attract extreme reprisals. It is ironical that the very radical forces that the two spawned – Benazir, at one time, referred to the Taliban as "my boys" – could now be the greatest threats to their very survival.

Every crisis pushes Pakistan dangerously close to the edge of failure. Husain Haqqani, a former adviser to Benazir Bhutto, notes that "Pakistan is not a failed state, but it's not a functioning state either… It's the in-between factor that makes it so unstable. People are at a loss to know how to deal with it." The diffusion of turmoil across the length and breadth of the country and the intensification of its multiple insurgencies show no signs of abating. There is a method in the madness of Islamist extremism and political violence in Pakistan, and this is constantly being reinforced, augmenting the already intolerable uncertainties for Pakistan as a nation.

The writer is a Research Fellow at Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi, India.

Courtesy : South Asia Terrorism Portal

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