It may have been a trifle disappointing for Asif Ali Zardari, widower of the slain Benazir Bhutto, to find that no one in his country or abroad had noted the ‘sacrifice’ he had made, which may not be comparable to a previously widely acclaimed ‘sacrifice’--that of Sonia Gandhi in India---but at the same a kind of oblation that is alien to politicians in the sub-continent. We have it on his word that in a handwritten ‘will’ drafted with a remarkable prescience weeks ahead of her assassination in Rawalpindi, HQ of Pakistan’s bloated army, Benazir Bhutto had nominated her husband to succeed her as the party chief. The act of self-denial was in Zardari foregoing that post, even though it was in favour of his teenage son, Bilawal.
That the baton of the leadership of Pakistan People’s Party will be passed on to someone in the Bhutto family was never in doubt. But the choice of Bilawal, the 19-year old scion of arguably Pakistan’s first political family, must have come as a surprise at first. The surprise did not last long as Zardari became the de facto power centre by declaring himself as a ‘co-chairman’ of the PPP (along with Makhdoom Amin Fahim) while the more fanciful title of ‘chairman’ of the party would rest with Bilawal, a first year student at Oxford.
The worldly-wise Zardari will act as the Regent while his son completes his studies, which guarantees the old man a minimum of about three years of absolute power over the PPP affairs. It could be an even longer period should the ‘serious-minded’ son of a former playboy father decide to extend his stay in the UK, or if his father thinks he needs a longer grooming period before he dives headlong into the vortex of Pakistani politics.
The reason why Zardari could not attract attention to his ‘sacrifice’ appears simple enough. With controversy dogging him almost as soon as he shot to fame overnight after marrying Benazir 20 years ago he was sure to face more problems than he would have bargained for had he agreed to take over formally as the PPP chairman. He has far fewer friends than anybody of consequence within the PPP family. It is the Bhutto children, not really the moustachioed widower, who have generated the ‘sympathy wave’ on which the PPP is banking to capture the national assembly after the polls, whenever they are held. Bilawal is more easily and convincingly identified as the continuation of the Bhutto clan than Zardari.
As a youngster who has hardly lived in his country since his birth, Bilawal may have an air of mystery about him but certainly he does not carry the kind of unwelcome baggage of real or trumped up charges, including corruption and murder (a brother of Benazir), that his father does. It is clear that had Zardari and not anyone directly from the Bhutto family been anointed the sole head the PPP could have witnessed a rebellion of sorts. It can only be guessed right now but it may well be that some senior party leaders may be unhappy over the role that Zardari will be playing as the PPP ‘co-chairman’.
The shock of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination had galvanised her party but that momentum will have to be kept alive till at least the national assembly polls. Zardari does not seem capable of discharging that duty. His son’s presence during the poll campaign just might help. Some of the profiles of Bilawal that have appeared in the Indian media do suggest that he can be a good speaker. But what has to be seen is whether, first of all, he has the necessary fluency in Urdu and, second, whether he can mesmerise audiences with the kind of demagogy and populism his mother and his grandfather displayed in abundance.
Benazir Bhutto had disappointed many of her followers in recent months after she struck a ‘deal’—much denied by all—with Gen Pervez Musharraf. It may be good politics in Pakistan today to present a tough face before Musharraf, but Zardari may have to negotiate on his own another ‘deal’ with the General to make sure that he does not have to suffer on account of the so-called corruption and other charges against him. He may like to deny it but he was able to stave off investigation and prosecution on many charges as the spouse of a prime minister. An unfriendly head of the state would not find it difficult to revive some of these charges.
Zardari’s problems will multiply if he is forced to speak and act for the reinstatement of the Supreme Court judges or to restore the independence of the higher judiciary. He cannot be too certain if a free and independent higher judiciary would not cause him any embarrassment in future even though he likes to claim that none of the charges levelled against him in the past ten years have been proved in a court of law.
In the aftermath of the tragedy of Bhutto’s assassination, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (N) has been all honey and sugar with the PPP. He has even agreed to form a coalition with the PPP should it become necessary. But in the end the PPP and the PML (N) are two different ‘mainstream’ and ‘secular’ parties in Pakistan. Neither of them will be interested in merging their identities into one body. Both will have to fight for the same space in Pakistan politics. It is hard to see their destinies linked to their merger or a long-term coalition. Sooner rather than later the two parties would like to stand against each other.
That may be the real test of all the skills that Zardari is said to have acquired during his forays into politics as a minister in Benazir’s government or as her spouse. At this stage it does not look possible that Zardari will acquire the charisma and the political savvy of Benazir in the coming three or four years. His son, no matter how talented he turns out to be, will require an even longer period of grooming before he is moulded into a perfect Bhutto, a popular brand in Pakistan politics.
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