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OPINION

Will Coalition Survive in Pakistan?
J. N. RAINA

Pakistan is faced with a catch-22 situation. President Pervez Musharraf is having his bad days ahead, giving him sleepless nights and enough of cause for consternation. His ‘wings’ are likely to be ‘clipped’ by the new government. Either he will be impeached and forced to step down, or he will be reduced to a ‘titular head’, when an omnibus constitutional package is introduced in the National Assembly. It all depends on how the U S will act to save him.

As if it is not enough, Musharraf is facing the Talibans’ wrath, who bay for his blood, holding him responsible for massacre of ‘thousands’ of religious students at Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa in Islamabad last year. He is ready to compromise and work with ‘reduced’ power with the new government, led by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), in association with the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Awami National Party (ANP). He has no alternative but to surrender to the democratic forces.

An unnamed cabinet minister is acting as a mediator between Musharraf and the government, ostensibly on the ‘instructions’ of the U S, to save the superpower’s most trusted ally in its war on global terror. Musharraf on his part is reported to have given an undertaking that he will not meddle in the matter of governance, in case he is saved from impeachment. May be, he wants a breathing space to see how the new winds blow and in which direction, and whether he gets another chance to stage a coup and oust the new government at an embryonic stage.

Be as it may; Musharraf has even resorted to blackmailing tactics, expressing fears that if he is removed or steps down, the Americans will launch a ‘dirty’ military attack on Pakistan’s restive tribal belt, where Al Qaida and the Talibans are well-trenched. The U S might even take away disgraced nuclear scientist Dr A Q Khan for interrogation, for his involvement in the proliferation activities. Khan has himself admitted about his dirty role in passing nuclear secrets to several countries, including Iran, North Korea and Libya to ‘save Pakistan’.

Musharraf perhaps wants his people to believe in the humbug of imagined U S attack, as if the new leadership has feet of clay, and they do not know how to avoid a face-off in a given situation. These are lame excuses to cling to power. These misgivings are generally raised by Pakistan’s dictators whenever there is a regime change. Another explanation given by him is that Gwadar port in Balochistan will get affected if he is removed from the scene and that Pakistan’s ‘time-tested’ friendship with China will suffer a major blow.

Believably, to some extent Musharraf’s fears have some substance .He is under tremendous pressure from the U S. That can be explained by the fact that Bush administration has just issued last ‘warning’ that it will try to get a stranglehold on Pakistan’s nuclear assets. The Americans’ suspicion has grown widely that future 9\11 kind of attack on New York was likely from Pakistan and not from Afghanistan. Whatever the logic, it must be better known to the US. Or is it that they feign fears to save Musharraf from the gallows?

According to the draft package, the powers of the President to dissolve the National Assembly under Article 58(2) B of the Constitution are sought to be withdrawn. Henceforth (in case of the amendment) he cannot appoint provincial governors and Services Chiefs, or impose governor’s rule in any province or declare a state of emergency. Then Musharraf will lose his sheen and he will look like a Kashmir stag (the hangul) without sharp horns, and will remain bereft of power that he had been wielding since he his bloodless coup in 1999.

The package, to be called the 18th Constitutional amendment, will take away many crucial powers of the President. The coalition leaders PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari, PML(N) chief Nawaz Sharif and Awami National Party leader Asfandyar Wali Khan, have already signed a charter of democracy, according to which the government will have to first restore sacked judges of the superior court. They will have to make the Parliament ‘independent’ and ‘sovereign’.

First things ought to come first, priority-wise. Pakistan should address the issue of Islamic terrorism and extremism. To begin with, there is no way but to put curbs on madrassa culture, the bane of terrorism. Without impeaching Musharraf, if the situation can be brought on the rails, it will definitely augur well for Pakistan, where the armed forces have always ruled the roost. The democratic weapon has to be given a strong push

Ironically, differences have already cropped up between Zardari and Nawaz Sharif on the mechanism to be adopted for restoration of the sacked judges. Minor irritants continue to haunt the government. Although Musharraf has agreed to the reinstatement of the judges, he doesn’t want to see the sacked chief justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry at the apex court once again. In a way he is playing his own cards to divide not only the judicial fraternity but also the coalition parties. Nawaz is keen that Iftikhar is fully restored to his original esteem, for it is he who had actually spearheaded the banner of revolt against Musharraf and suffered for the restoration of democracy. Zardari is coming closer to Musharraf to sort out differences with him, to the chagrin of Nawaz Sharif and his own party men. He is trying to mend fences with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) also. They have agreed to bury the hatchet. But Sharif is not willing to accommodate MQM, his sworn enemy for a long while.

There is no room for squabbling among the coalition partners at this juncture. It will shake people’s faith in democracy and pave way for the Army rule again. The coalition should act judiciously and not allow the powerful Army and ISI to come to the limelight. The Army Chief General Ashraf Kayani has given a gentleman’s promise that he will remain apolitical, but what is the guarantee?

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani has offered a dialogue with terrorists, if they lay down arms. If the jehadis accept the proposal, it will go a long way in improving the situation in Pakistan. But the State apparatus should back off from inculcating feelings of ‘communal bigotry’ among the youth and shun from eulogizing Ghazni, Ghauri and Aurangzeb as role models.



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