Three months after the country’s much-acclaimed polls, generally viewed as free and fair belying fears to the contrary, nothing much seems to have changed in Pakistan. People are restive as before, though their ire is directed more towards the hardships they face in daily lives than the perceived American interference in their lives.

There is little love lost between the two major partners in the coalition government--a disturbing sign of political instability right at the initial stages of revival of democracy when the polls were expected to lead the country on the road to stability. The much-vilified president whose ouster was a clarion call of most participants in the national polls remains in office even though he may sulk now and then. The reinstatement of the chief justice of the Supreme Court and other senior judges is still a war cry across the legal fraternity when this was supposed to be among the first jobs to be taken up by the elected representatives.

The circus is not restricted to domestic audience. Hardly a day passes when the newly elected leaders of the country, including a prime minister who is said to be keeping the seat warm for his boss, are not telling India that peace and normal bilateral relations are possible only after the ‘core issue’ of Kashmir has been resolved (to Islamabad’s satisfaction) in accordance with the UN resolutions that even the UN thinks have become irrelevant.

The new Pakistani leaders aver their commitment to the peace process with India but have shut their eyes and ears as terrorists trained and financed by them start to sneak into India in increasing numbers, many by crossing the line of control under the watchful eyes of the Pakistan army which has started to breach the ceasefire. The audience for the Pakistani circus gets wider with President George W. Bush making a long-distance call to his ‘tight’ friend, Gen (retd) Pervez Musharraf to reassure him that the US was throwing its weight behind his continuation in office. Never mind if it is the same Musharraf who has been widely accused in the US of helping the Taliban re-emerge as a threat to Afghanistan.

The US president might have met—in Egypt-- the ‘elected’ prime minister of Pakistan, Yousuf Gilani to show that he has opened a communication channel with the new government in Islamabad, but his heart is still with Musharraf, the rallying point of Pakistan’s virulent anti-Americanism. The Pakistanis may howl at US ‘interference’ in their internal affairs but Washington is clearly for a Pakistani team of Musharraf and PPP with little or no role for Nawaz Sharif and his PML(N).

The few political friends that Musharraf still has within the country have quickly recovered from their setback and are now busy organising campaigns in his support, something that might have been unimaginable till a few weeks ago. The Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid)—the King’s Party—has announced that through its nation-wide campaign it would blunt the attacks on Musharraf by his opponents who, as rulers, are trying to divert attention from the uncomfortable issues like price rise and shortages of essential items.

Spectators can only wonder if Musharraf is on his way out or will stay put in office for his entire term of almost five years. Calls for his removal from office had reached a crescendo during the poll campaign. Even now ‘Go Musharraf, Go’ is a frequently heard slogan raised at rallies all over the country. Political parties have expressed a resolve to send Musharraf packing home after the polls. But the only sign of Musharraf’s departure are rumours of a plane being readied to fly him out of the country. Musharraf’s staff has rubbished the rumours.

Now the task of pushing Musharraf out of power has been found to be nearly impossible. But the people of the country have not relented in their opposition to his continuation in office. The constitutional hurdles—a two-thirds majority in parliament to impeach him--that stand in the way of his removal do not seem to have impressed the ordinary people. For over a month the ruling coalition has been working on a ‘package’ that would allow Musharraf to stay as president but would see his wings considerably clipped, reducing him to a figure head instead of the all-powerful head of the state as well as the executive who has powers to dismiss governments and appoint service chiefs and provincial governors.

Some of the amendments proposed in the constitutional ‘package’ are indeed bold. Not only will the president’s sweeping powers be curtailed but even the judges who validate military takeover and swear allegiance to the military regime under the provisional constitutional order are liable to be tried for high treason. A candidate will not be disqualified from contesting election merely because he has been accused of ridiculing the judiciary or the armed forces. And what might be called a Musharraf-specific proposal, the president will not be allowed to contest for a third term in office.

The ‘package’ for removing Musharraf is in its drafting stage but assuming it becomes the final document the point is how will it be executed? It will have to be approved by the National Assembly of Pakistan to become effective. The ruling coalition is not sure if it can muster the necessary two-thirds majority to carry constitutional amendments through parliament. In the upper house, the senate, the opposition PML (Q) has more members than the ruling combine. So to push through the package, the ruling combine may also have to approach the PML (Q). The latter would agree only on its own terms. That should rule out the possibility of removal of Musharraf or even drastically reducing his powers.

The issue of the reinstatement of the chief justice of the Supreme Court is getting more and more curious. The leading partner in the coalition, the Pakistan People’s Party now barely hides its reservations about bringing back Chaudhary while the next biggest partner, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has not given up its resolve to restore him with all his powers. Chaudhary, now freed from house arrest, has become the de facto leader of the lawyers’ movement that was started in his defence.

Chaudhry’s ‘caravan’—a line of cars and other motor vehicles-- is so popular with that masses line on either side of the roads throwing rose petals on him. It takes hours to traverse even small distances. Surely, L.K. Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi, the two famous Rath Yatris of India, would envy the kind of spontaneous reception he reportedly gets all over Pakistan. If one forgets the price India had to pay at least these two Indian leaders did get what they wanted--power. It is nowhere sure that Chaudhary is about to get his job back—or Musharraf will be kicked out, or Pakistan will be less ambiguous in fighting terror.

Election or no election, in certain matters Pakistan does not change.

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