For one century in the past the Gulf oil remained the main source of energy supplies to the world. In the process, West Asia, and particularly the littoral states, which incidentally happen to be the Muslim dominated states, emerged as potent actors on the stage of international relations. That contemporary politics is the politics of oil is the whole truth.
Disintegration of the Soviet Union has thrown up a new oil scenario in the territories of the erstwhile Soviet Union. In a sense, the time has come when a century - old West Asian oil monopoly shall lose its pivotal position in determining the course of contemporary history as “Pan-Asian energy goals” begin to over-ride the “ new great game” syndrome in Central Eurasia.
Russia has the dream of a broad strategy of promoting global energy security on the basis of being the world’s biggest holder of energy resources; 13 per cent of proven oil reserves, 34 per cent of natural gas and a quarter of all coals. She is the second largest exporter of crude, and the largest exporter of natural gas. 90 per cent of her energy supplies go to Europe and the share of Asian nations is a mere 3 per cent.
With majority of ASEAN countries favouring Russian entry into East Asia based on 10-year Russia-ASEAN action plan recently adopted in Kuala Lampur, energy has been thrown up as the key area for Russia to shift attention on East Asia. There is a likelihood of Russia joining the next EAS in Jakarta in December 2006.
The US and Iran had, during the past one decade, emerged as potent challengers of Russia in the field of transportation and marketing of Central Eurasian hydrocarbon resources. Virtual oil rivalry between Russia, Iran and the US in this region is rapidly inching towards new structuring of geostrategies. Early this year, the US adroitly pursuing its policy of excluding Russia from Caspian oil deals, began transportation of oil through newly built Baku – Tblisi – Ceyhan oil pipeline. This was to be complemented by a proposed gas pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey running parallel to the oil pipeline. In the process Russia would be deprived of large income from land lease/toll tax. Iran, though at loggerheads with the US, was not really averse to the Trans-Caspian energy strategy of Washington as far as Moscow had positioned itself in the scheme of things.
Moscow countered American move by building the Blue Stream pipeline jointly with Italy from the Russian cost of Black Sea to Turkey ensuring a potential new export route of Russian gas to Europe. The interesting aspect is that it bypasses Ukraine, greatly reducing the indispensability of American- sponsored Azerbaijan-Turkey gas pipeline route.
With Russian gas coming to Turkey and then to Europe, Iran, another contender in the region, has been forced to look Eastward, and thus reinforcement and serious revival of ambitious Iran – Pakistan-India gas pipeline project. Russia has also expressed her willingness to build the long-debated Turkmenistan–Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, thereby further augmenting energy supplies to the energy-starved South Asian countries. Yet one more disappointment to the American energy plans in Central Asia comes from the flow of Kazakh oil to China through the China-laid pipeline earlier this month.
In his address to the second meeting of Asian energy producers and consumers in New Delhi last month, Russia explicitly stated that Moscow planned promoting energy security for Asia on a very large scale. The plan carries three basic principles of Russian energy policy, namely (a) stepping up oil and gas exports to the region (b) new production and transportation infrastructure to Russia’s oil and gas fields in Siberia tied to Asian consumers and (c) attracting more Asian investment in Russian energy sector.
In Moscow’s strategy for global energy security, Russian oil supplies to Asia are expected to grow from present 3 per cent to 30 per cent (100 million tones) in 2020 and gas supplies from 5 per cent to 25 per cent (65 billion cubic meters). This plan is at the tap of Russia’s agenda for deliberations at G-8 summit in St. Petersburg when Russia takes over its chairmanship next year.
While the proposed plan is a direct challenge to US’ domination of Central Eurasian oil diplomacy, it is likely to stir fierce rivalry between China and Japan as well over the issue of the route for the energy pipeline from Siberia to Far East. South Korea, too, has stakes in the project and India has already invested 2.7 billion dollars in the Sakhalin ! oil and gas project. India expects to meet 20 per cent of her energy consumption from Russian source.
With the successful floating of this immensely crucial energy security strategy in Central Eurasian region with direct impact on entire East Asia, the world will witness new permutation and combination of political forces all set to contribute to the bridging of East and West in what the Indian energy minister Mr. Iyer termed “Pan-Asian Energy Grid.” Nobody can challenge the importance of this far-reaching strategy for the sake of peace and prosperity of vast humanity of the Asian continent.
The author is the former Director of Centre of Central Asian Steadies, Kashmir University, India.
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