While the progressive collapse in NWFP and FATA is well documented, the situation in Pakistan’s heartland, Punjab, and its emergence as a jihadi hub, has largely escaped attention. A deeper scrutiny indicates that the state of affairs in Punjab is, in many ways, precarious – and this will have far reaching consequences for Pakistan.

155 persons, including 92 civilians and 51 Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed in 104 terrorism-related incidents in Punjab during first half of 2009. The overwhelming proportion of fatalities comprised civilians and SF personnel, and just 12 terrorists, including nine suicide bombers, have died in the current year – a clear indication that the Taliban-Al Qaeda network is securing the upper hand. The extremists are also bringing the conflict to Pakistan's urban heartland, including the national capital Islamabad, Punjab’s provincial capital Lahore and the garrison town of Rawalpindi. Out of the 104 incidents recorded in the first half of 2009, nine were reported from Islamabad and 18 from Lahore.

Terrorism-related Incidents & Fatalities in Punjab - 2008 & 2009

Out of the total of 155 fatalities, 122 were killed and 595 others wounded in nine suicide attacks in Punjab during the first six months of 2009. Three of the suicide attacks in the province were orchestrated in Islamabad, two each in Lahore and Rawalpindi, and one each in Dera Ghazi Khan and Chakwal. Moreover, at least five 'potential suicide bombers' were arrested from Lahore on two occasions in 2009. On May 6, SFs arrested three alleged would-be suicide bombers from the Sabzi Mandi area of Lahore. According to a private TV channel, the three were identified as Abdul Aziz, Misri Shah and Qari Shahid. Again on May 15, SFs arrested three suspected terrorists, including two would-be suicide bombers, from Lahore. Further, the Punjab Inspector General of Police, Tariq Saleem Dogar, told a top-level meeting in Lahore on June 24, 2009, that 18 terrorists and suicide bombers had been arrested from the province, and suicide jackets recovered, over the preceding month and a half. In fact, 308 out of the total 324 fatalities in 2008 were caused by suicide attacks – an unambiguous indication of Punjab’s vulnerability. At the other end, the data also provides a glimpse into the extremist milieu, with suicide bombings orchestrated and suicide cadres recruited by the Taliban-al Qaeda combine, as well as by groups which remain Islamabad’s strategic assets, such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), which largely concentrate on India.

Suicide Attacks in Punjab, 2003-2009

At least 123 persons were killed and 641 were wounded in as many as 17 bomb explosions (including suicide attacks) triggered in Punjab in first six moths of 2009. Of these, three were reported from Islamabad and nine from Lahore. Another five bomb explosions were reported from Rawalpindi, Dera Ghazi Khan, Mianwali, Kundal and Chakwal. In addition, at least 358 militants were arrested across the province in the first six months of 2009, and many terrorist cells were neutralised.

Bomb Blasts in Punjab, 2007-2009

Amidst a welter of suicide and IED bombings and heightened subversion over the past two-and-a-half years, the state has been in constant denial, something that has come naturally to successive regimes in Pakistan. The standard assessment has been that these attacks are merely a ‘spill-over’ of the multiple insurgencies wrecking the Frontier and Tribal Areas, and that radical Islam cannot undermine Punjab. The establishment has held that, while there are numerous conflicts in other provinces accelerating Pakistan’s progressive collapse, Punjab’s Sufi-Barelvi Islamic culture is proof against any indigenous movement in the province. Such an assessment is, however, far from the deteriorating realities of the ground.

Out of the 35 Districts in Punjab, at least 26 are currently militancy-affected, in varying proportions. Apart from the urban space which the militants have consistently targeted and where they also maintain safe havens, there is also a great deal of subversion in the countryside. Considerable militant activity has been noticed in Dera Ghazi Khan, from where the radical clerics of Islamabad’s Lal Masjid hail. The swift growth of madrassas (seminaries) is reportedly encouraging Talibanisation in the remote areas of Dera Ghazi Khan Division. According to records made available to The News, over 400 new seminaries have been established during the last eight years in Dera Ghazi Khan, raising their total number to 600. The report indicated, further, that about 50 per cent of the population adhered to the Deoband sect, and are said to be Taliban sympathisers, and a "large number of youth belonging to these families… have taken part in what they term jihad." Sources indicate that militancy has augmented during the last couple of years in Punjab Districts such as Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, Dera Ghazi Khan, Muzaffargarh, Faisalabad, Jhang, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Lahore, Okara, Multan, Vehari, Sahiwal, Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Sargodha, Mianwali and Bhakkar. Militant activity in these Districts is linked both to conflicts in other provinces and the swelling terrorist networks within.

The infirmity of state response has led to apprehensions that a NWFP-like movement may emerge in Punjab in the proximate future. Delayed state response in the Frontier, in fact, actually allowed the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to consolidate and mount an enormous threat to Punjab (as well as Sindh). The Federal Government has reportedly put both Punjab and Sindh on alert amid mounting concern that the TTP is spreading south. Interior Minister Rehman Malik told The Financial Times in an interview published on June 26, 2009, that his department had analysed 1,148 terrorist threats in the country over the last four months alone. "Now, for example, we suspect something similar [to Swat] may arise in south Punjab. We are sharing the information with Punjab," he said, "You know Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jaish-e-Muhammad … all those people basically hail from that area. What we suspect [is] perhaps all those terrorists who fled from Waziristan or Swat might take refuge in south Punjab."

While Punjab as a whole has, for long, been one of the hubs of radical Islam, the locus is in South Punjab. Also known as the Seraiki region, South Punjab has a population of approximately 27 million, and comprises 13 Districts: Multan, Bahawalpur, Rahimyar Khan, Jhang, Layyah, Lodhran, Khanewal, Muzaffargarh, Bahawalnagar, Rajanpur, Bhakkar, Vehari and Dera Ghazi Khan. A New York Times report indicated that, in at least five towns in South Punjab, including Multan, barbershops, music stores and Internet cafes have reported receiving threats from the Taliban. Alarmingly, sources indicate that Al Qaeda has an unspecified number of sleeper cells in the madrassa network of south Punjab, which can be activated at a short notice to attack both state installations and foreign targets. While there is some substance in the growing belief among American officials and experts that the next terrorist attack against the United States is likely to originate from within the FATA, there is a distinct possibility that such an attack could, more plausibly, involve urban jihadis from Punjab's extremist environment. Along with the FATA and Malakand Division in the Frontier, South Punjab, on current indicators, is the most vulnerable region vis-à-vis the Taliban-Al Qaeda bloc. A Daily Times editorial on June 28, 2009 rightly notes:

South Punjab is vulnerable to terrorism radiating from the FATA stronghold of Baitullah Mehsud because Dera Ghazi Khan abuts on the NWFP city of Dera Ismail Khan, which has a border with South Waziristan. Multan remains the stronghold of the Deobandi school of thought by reason of having its wifaq (federation) of madrassas headquartered there. South Punjab also joins Sindh and Balochistan, and if these two provinces go on the boil, South Punjab will feel the heat most… South Punjab is supposed to be under normal administration but in reality the writ of the state is weak there. Because of distance from the Punjab Assembly in Lahore, local power-brokers have taken over. The madrassa and its jihadi offshoots are strong, so are the feudal landlords with large holdings. The Police work in tandem with them instead of subjecting them to equality under law."

The TTP, LeT, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Hizb-ut-Tehreer, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan and its armed wing, the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), are the dominant terrorist groups operating in Punjab. While the lone terrorist arrested during the Mumbai attacks of November 26, 2008, Mohammad Ajmal Amir Iman alias Kasab, hailed from Faridkot village in the Okara District of Punjab province, eight of the nine who were killed during the attack were also from Punjab. Both the LeT and the JeM draw a majority of their cadres from south Punjab, including Multan and Bahawalpur, the latter of which is also the JeM headquarters. The LeT and its banned front, Jama'at-ud-Da'awa (JuD), have long maintained an open presence in places like the provincial capital Lahore and Muridke (approximately 40 kms from Lahore). Muridke is where the LeT is headquartered. Qudsia Mosque in Chauburji Chowk in Lahore is the Jama'at-ud-Da'awa headquarters.

On December 11 and 12, 2008, under relentless international pressure, authorities sealed 34 offices of the JuD across Punjab, Police sealed the group's offices in the south Punjab cities of Bahawalpur, Rahim Yar Khan, Rajanpur, Arifwala, Bahawalnagar and Khanewal. These sealed offices, however, represent no more than a tiny fraction of the large LeT presence across Punjab. The Punjab Government has appointed administrators in 10 JuD schools after intelligence agencies reported that these institutions were promoting extremism. At least 26 JuD educational institutions operate in various parts of the province. Before the crackdown, LeT leaders like Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, one of the many merchants of death in Pakistan, Abdur Rehman Makki, Abu Hashim and Ameer Hamza, were openly seen in Lahore. It is now abundantly clear that Pakistan’s crackdown on the LeT and terrorists like Saeed, Zarar Shah and Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, despite the Government claims that these were an exceptional achievement, are a mere eyewash. Sources indicate that Saeed was, in fact, allowed to continue to operate as chief of the LeT/JuD even after being physically confined to his house. India’s National Security Advisor M. K. Narayanan aptly stated, in February 2009: "They are house guests, at least Lakhvi and Zarar Shah are house guests. I don't know if it amounts to detention." A detailed examination of the evidence presented against the accused by prosecution in the Lahore High Court indicates that the authorities deliberately presented a weak case against Saeed in order to secure his release.

Groups like the LeT, with considerable state support, have, over the years, built an elaborate socio-economic infrastructure in Punjab, functioning as an alternative to the state, since the latter is unable to provide the needed social capital for an overwhelming proportion of the population. The worldview of groups like the JuD/LeT thus enjoys wide acceptability. Given the quantum of popular acceptance, the Punjabi dominated armed forces – themselves deeply ambivalent on this count – may find it difficult to confront the jihadis in Punjab, if subversion in the Province become unmanageable in the proximate future.

The outlawed Sunni sectarian formation, LeJ, which carried out the suicide attack on the Marriott Hotel on September 20, 2008, killing 60 people, also has a strong presence in Punjab, particularly in Gujranwala, Jhang, Multan, Lahore and Islamabad. It is pertinent to note that sustained state action over the years has failed to neutralise the LeJ. On the contrary, not only has it survived to continue its pogrom against the minority Shia community across Pakistan, it has also ominously evolved into a significant Al Qaeda affiliate, providing logistic support and at times even leading terrorist assaults.

Militants from Punjab are also fighting elsewhere in Pakistan. For instance, six men killed in a US missile strike on December 11, 2008, in Azam Warsak in South Waziristan, were found to be militants from Punjab. The NWFP Governor Owais Ghani warned Punjab on September 22, 2008, that militancy was gaining strength in its backyard: "Militants in the tribal areas of the NWFP have established firm networking (with jihadi groups) in southern Punjab and most fresh recruits for suicide attacks are coming from there. Militant leaders and commanders are also coming from Punjab. The militants’ field commander in Swat too is from Punjab." Ghani warned, further, "It will be ill-advised to think that the militancy will remain confined to the NWFP. Militants’ activities have already shifted to the settled areas and Punjab and they have established strong links with south Punjab. It's a national issue, a question of survival for Pakistan." A Pakistani security official was quoted as stating in Daily Times on April 15, 2009, that five to 10 percent of the militants in FATA could be Punjabi.

For years, militants from Punjab have been used as strategic assets for deployment in Afghanistan and India. Samina Ahmed, Project Director of the International Crisis Group’s South Asia Project, thus notes, "Owing to the support from long-established Sunni extremist networks, these groups are based primarily in Punjab and have served as the Army’s jihadi proxies in Afghanistan and India since the 1980s." It is only in the more recent period that tactical links with the TTP, Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda have led to the Punjabi jihadi fighting in the Frontier and Tribal Areas within Pakistan. The Punjabi Taliban or Tehrik-i-Taliban Punjab has now begun to attack targets within Punjab. For instance, they claimed responsibility for the bomb-and-gun attack on offices of the Capital City Police Officer and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Lahore on May 27, 2009, in which at least 27 persons died and 326 were injured. Fearful of the fact that, in the near future, some in the jihadi enterprise may become renegades and target their erstwhile patrons, Islamabad has begun to consider pre-emptive measures.

However, two groups – the LeT and JeM (a small faction of which, led by Maulana Abdul Jabbar, has turned renegade) – remain steadfast strategic assets and have not faced adverse state action, irrespective of the regime type. The others present on the ground have, however, attacked cities and maintain a strong presence in the Punjab countryside.

Circumstances in Punjab are, at the moment, certainly not as bad as conditions in the Frontier or FATA. There is, however, an environment, as also the essential dramatis personae, for a Frontier-like scenario to emerge in Punjab. The TTP-Al Qaeda combine and other jihadi groups like the LeT and LeJ have, in fact, over the years, ably exploited the favourable circumstances prevailing in the region not only to build a strong and vast extremist network in Punjab, but also to escape adverse state action. In the absence of a situation marked by escalating militancy and widespread violence, military deployment in Punjab may not be a viable proposition. Crucially, it is not clear whether the Pakistan Army, which is dominated by Punjabis (estimated to approximately 65 per cent of the Force), will be keen on fighting their own.

While military deployment in Punjab will be considered in a worst-case scenario, it is the Punjab Police which is currently the lead agency in anti-terrorist operations. Police capacities are, however, known to be entirely inadequate to take on the Al Qaeda-Taliban combine. Punjab has the largest Police force in the country with strength of a 166,944 personnel (as on October 1, 2008) with an annual budget of PKR 43.22 billion (2009-10). 85 per cent of the strength consists of Constables and Head Constables and on an average one constable corresponds to 543 people (Source: Annual Report 2006 of the National Police Bureau), which is quite insufficient to meet normal policing challenges. Even the national capital, Islamabad, which has witnessed three suicide attacks in 2009 (20 in all since the first one on March 17, 2002) and significant militant activity in general, is not sufficiently secure. The Islamabad Capital Territory Police has jurisdiction over 13 Police Stations in the Islamabad Capital Territory, which is spread over 3,624 square kilometres. Its population, as per 1998, census was approximately 0.799 million, but is now estimated to be about 1.207 million. On an average, there is one constable for 873 people (Source: Annual Report 2006 of the National Police Bureau), which is acutely insufficient to meet routine policing needs.

The force, moreover, has a 20 per cent shortage of weaponry, according to Jawad Dogar, the officer in charge of logistics. Even on rudimentary necessities, the Punjab Police, which is arguably the best force among all provincial police forces, is reportedly struggling. It has a single Police laboratory and forensic investigations are almost unheard of, the Wall Street Journal reported on May 28, 2009. While it has never been trained to combat militancy, it is presently struggling to cope with the augmenting pressures of urban terror. Hussain Abbas, who served in the administrations of Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto, notes that the Police is one of Pakistan’s most poorly managed organizations and that, "the primary reason for this state of affairs is the Government’s persistent failure to invest in law enforcement reform and modernization." According to Abbas, "the Manawan Police Training School [near Lahore; eight Police recruits and a civilian were killed when it was attacked on March 30], where 800 recruits are currently undergoing a four-month course in basic training, there are no beds or heating arrangements, only twelve toilets, and no provisions for showers. Even worse, no medical facilities are available and, according to a media report, 30 percent of the recruits routinely miss their training schedules due to illness."

However, the provincial administration is now gradually investing in capacity building. Reports in June 2009, for instance, indicated that the first quick response unit of the Punjab Police had completed training with the Pakistan Army. A batch of 122 Policemen from the Quick Response Force, trained to cope with terrorist incidents, have started working in two shifts in Lahore, The Dawn reported on July 3. In addition, short-term training courses to check suicide attacks and terrorism are underway at all Police training centres across the province, Punjab Police Inspector General Tariq Saleem Dogar stated at Lahore on June 25, 2009.

Apart from militancy-related issues, issues of deprivation and injustices, either perceived or real, which have been dormant for a long time, are also now gradually becoming manifest. For instance, the demand for a separate Seraiki province (a projected Seraikistan, essentially comprising South Punjab) which had been latent in the past, is now beginning to secure increasing articulation. While political elites and lawmakers are currently debating the possibilities of dividing Punjab into two entities, there is potential for some unrest on this issue due to its sensitive and emotive content, and also because of the generic chaos across Pakistan.

As disorder spreads in the other provinces of Pakistan, its heartland, Punjab, is bound to come under intense pressure in the immediate future.

The writer is a Research Fellow at Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi, India.

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