The arms sales do appear to be on, if for no other reason than the fact that the US arms industry is in desperate need of buyers. One thing that can be said with some certainty, going by past experience, is that the US will ‘balance’ the arms sales in the sub-continent. This is something that will please the client state of Pakistan and disappoint those in India who swear by a transformed US that is said to be sincere in befriending us.

‘Balance’ in US sales of arms to India and Pakistan has always meant a tilt in favour of Islamabad. The US now claims that it is cultivating a new post-cold war relationship with India outside its bilateral ties with Pakistan. But that will not prevent the old US theory of ‘balance’ being put into practice.

Only the cover will change: voices are being heard in Washington that by selling arms to India, Washington will be fuelling an arms race in an area where both the rivals are armed with nuclear arms. And as the self-appointed monitor in the sub-continent, the US should not sell any ‘offensive’ weapons to India, says a powerful lobby, which has a clear anti-India bias.

With plenty of cash flowing from abroad and pledges totally nearly $6 billion after the devastating October 2005 earthquake, Pakistan will certainly be encouraged to buy latest arms from the US which in any case has pledged a $3 billion economic and military package as a trade off for ‘cooperation’ in the so-called war against terror.

It may be recalled that in 2003, the US had offered Pakistan a $9 billion arms package. Washington also rewarded it in March 2004 by elevating it to the status of non-Nato ally by virtue of which Pakistan becomes eligible for soft loans for leasing the latest American weapons and equipment for research and development purposes. It can expect speedy clearance for import of US arms.

Quake or no quake, Pakistan is almost sure to go on a big arms shopping spree worth billions of dollars in 2006 in the name of ‘matching’ the strength of India’s conventional arms. Earlier it appeared as though Pakistan might defer some of its arms purchase plans, particularly the F-16 fighters in view of the more pressing financial needs in the earthquake hit areas. But cash is no longer a problem with Islamabad. It already has negotiated a $4 billion deal for buying Chinese JF-17 jet fighters and naval boats.

As always, Pakistan has a long shopping list for arms that it is seeking from abroad. US vice president, Dick Cheney, and defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld, had made ‘unannounced’ visits to Pakistan in quick succession to assure the military rulers that they continue to enjoy American affections and their roguish activities will continue to be overlooked. The Americans are not going to raise the question of priority for quake relief should Pakistan announce its plans to buy huge quantity of arms and equipment from the US in 2006.

What is more, nearly every item that Pakistan wants may be made available to it. The US had lifted the arms sanctions on Pakistan soon after 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington by Islamist terrorists (who had a Pakistani connection too). At that time the main item that Pakistan wanted to buy from the US was a fleet of 16 F-16 jet fighters that, in fact, had already been contracted for. Since then Pakistan has considerably expanded its shopping list and included nearly all the items that India too is keen to buy from the US. These include P3C Orion maritime surveillance aircraft, PAC-3 anti-missiles and electronic warfare systems.

In May 2005, the Pentagon had informed the US Congress that it would let Pakistan buy 300 ‘Sidewinder’ heat-seeking air-to-air missiles and 60 Harpoon missiles. Their total value exceeds $225 million. Pakistan has also expressed a desire to buy 75 new models of F-16s. Under the excuse of fighting Al Qaeda fugitives, Pakistan has already received many sophisticated surveillance and military equipment from the US free of charge.

India too has shown interest in buying a large American variety of new arms and equipment. But the Bush administration is yet to take a decision on what it is willing to sell to India. The US decision is not entirely driven by commercial considerations when it relates to sale of certain arms and equipment to India that Pakistan alleges will disturb the ‘balance’ in the sub-continent. That India’s defence and security needs cannot be judged with the Pakistani prism does not matter to the decision makers in Washington.

A 2003 agreement between India and the US that goes by the grandiose name of ‘next step in strategic partnership’ is meant to enhance bilateral ties in various fields, including military. To be sure, the US has ‘offered’ cooperation in many strategic areas, including the sale of some sophisticated arms.

Nothing big seems to be in the pipeline even after almost three years of this new relationship. The US allows the veto right to Islamabad in the sale of any ‘offensive’ weapon of US make or design to India, even if that equipment is manufactured in a third country.

India’s interest in US weapons is part of the process of diversifying the sources. India is no longer keen to put all its eggs in the Russian basket after it was found that spares for many vital Russian equipment were not available easily or in time. But India continues to be more interested in purchasing defence equipment from suppliers who are willing to transfer technology. This is another no-go area as far as the Americans are concerned, if it means transferring cutting-edge technology to India.

In the name of civilian nuclear cooperation with India it appears the US is going to transfer—the Congress permitting-- nothing but dated or untested and untried technology. India can hardly expect America to be generous in selling its latest ‘offensive’ armed equipment unless it can sell the same to its MFN ally in the region.


Courtesy : Syndicate Features

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