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OPINION

The North Korea Riddle
M. RAMA RAO & TUSHAR CHARAN

Western security analysts aver that the biggest test of Washington-Beijing realpolitik in 2006 may be North Korea and Iran. Because, Washington is critically dependent upon China’s help if it wants to stop the Iran and North Korea from realising their nuclear ambitions. Beijing has better leverage with Teheran (because the Chinese buy much oil from Iran) not only with Pyongyang but it is not willing to play along with the US.

As of now, China is restricting its role on the Korean nuclear issue to that of an honest neutral broker at the ‘six-party talks’ as a part of its long term strategic planning. That is why it is merely ‘cajoling’ President Kim Jong II, and is not resorting to arms twisting the Americans would like to see.

Americans are not sure that North Koreans have agreed to give up their nuclear weapons programme though at the end of the last round of six-nation negotiations in Beijing it was announced that Pyongyang had ‘agreed’ to renounce its nuclear weapons programme. It will rejoin the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and (as part of obligation under the treaty), allow nuclear inspectors into the country in exchange for security, economic and energy benefits.

Part of the ‘bargain’ struck at Beijing was that the US will give an undertaking that it will not attack North Korea if the latter adhered to the disarmament accord, thus ending the major purported reason for North Korea to start a nuclear weapons programme.

But there was no time to celebrate what was hailed as a crucial breakthrough in nuclear arms control talks as North Korea said just a day later that it was not abandoning its nuclear programme until the US provided it an atomic energy reactor.

During the six-nation talks in Beijing, North Korea had demanded that it be given a light-water reactor—less easily diverted for weapons use—in exchange for abandoning its nuclear weapons programme. It was agreed during the six nations—China, Japan, US, Russia and the two Koreas—disarmament talks that they will discuss the reactor issue ‘at an appropriate time.’

It will appear that Pyongyang was being unreasonable and was living entirely up to its reputation as a rogue nation by going back on its words within 24 hours. It is not just the US that worries about a nuclear-armed Pyongyang but all of East Asia, including China which is otherwise about the only important friend of North Korea.

Much as we would denounce North Korea for its irresponsibility—and India has a special reason to be wary of North Korea which has armed Pakistan with missiles in exchange for nuclear know-how from Pakistan through the AQ Khan network-- it will be better to look at some other factors that might have weighed on the minds of the North Korea dictator, Kim Jong-Il.

No sooner had the first word about the North Korean nuclear accord been spoken the American reacted in their typically arrogant manner and said that they believe that the proof of the pudding lies in its eating: wait till we actually see North Korea abide by its part of the bargain. The Americans did not seem to believe—despite participating in the talks that led to the accord—that North Korea will actually dismantle its weapons programme or allow international nuclear weapons inspectors to visit its nuclear facilities.

If there was to be so much of mistrust of Pyongyang how was the ‘accord’ reached in the first place, especially when a high-level American team was part of the negotiations in Beijing? Who should be accused of reneging? Was it that after signing the so-called agreement, word reached the North Korean dictator that the Americans would be in no hurry to meet their part of the bargain?

That riddle may not be solved easily because of the constant war of words between the US and North Korea. But in the meanwhile, the hope generated in India by the ‘accord’ on North Korea may also prove to be short-lived. It was said that the success of the North Korean ‘accord’ would take the heat off the Indo-US nuclear deal which has been subjected to a relentless attack by influential sections within the US.

Pakistan is among the countries that have also been working overtime to denounce that deal, protesting that the nuclear (civilian) cooperation between India and the US amounted to an apartheid as the benefits to be given to India will not come to the other de facto nuclear nations.

Indo-US nuclear deal faces uncertainty not because of what North Korea does or does not but because the US administration is trying to use it to blackmail India into jettisoning its ties with Iran. The US sees Tehran as part of ‘the axis of evil’ and expects India to see Iran in the same light. It does not matter to the Americans that India has no reasons to share that view.

What the Americans want is a total shift of India into its camp as a result of which all the ‘bad guys’ in the world (as viewed in the US) become India’s foes. India will not be able to choose its own friends nor will it be able to complain about its foes whether they are next door neighbours or live in another planet. The US wants India to put all its eggs in its (US) basket.

Even if the way the North Koreans have troubled the Americans cannot be considered admirable the fact remains that with all their weaknesses—poor shape of economy and almost total isolation in the world-- the North Koreans forced the American to concede some ground in the end. The US did offer a number of economic and security concessions to Pyongyang at the time of the last round of six-nation talks in Beijing.

Relations between North Korea and the US have been far more worse than was ever the case between India and the US. Despite all the posturing of using its military might against Kim Jong-Il, the US found that it was not possible to open a war front against North Korea.

Nobody would like India to act and behave the way North Korea has or does, but India needs to examine how is it that nations much weaker than us manage to stand up to American bullying and bluffing and in the process manage to extract some concessions from the sole super power in the world. North Korea may still announce that it is after all giving up its nuclear weapons programme and get a whole lot of goodies from the Americans.

Here it may also be mentioned that quite frequently it has been reported that North Korea might be exaggerating its nuclear potential. That could not have influenced US policy towards North Korea because Washington decides on its own which country has weapons of mass destruction, which country is rogue or forms part of ‘the axis of evil’ and which country is a ‘frontline’ state in the so-called war on terror even if that country remains a half-hearted partner in that ‘holy’ war.

Why, the US rushes with its bags full of dollar to the ‘frontline’ state each time it issues a blackmailing threat?


Courtesy : Syndicate Features

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