The Mulford regret and Washington’s decision to distance itself from the envoy’s snarl have put a new spin on the US-India nuclear deal and question marks over President George Bush Junior’s planned visit to the sub-continent. Notwithstanding this development, India- Iran relations remain under severe strain. That is strange because bilateral relations between New Delhi and Tehran have survived and, in fact, grown stronger despite years of Iran’s ‘anti-Indian’ stance on Kashmir and open siding with India’s main foe in times of war.

Already learned comments from both the ‘committed’ Left and the ‘dedicated’ Right in the country have created the impression that India has become the first casualty of the on-going crisis over the Iranian nuclear issue, regardless of whether New Delhi says ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to the western moves against Iran in international bodies.

At a time when Iran is fast loosing friends in the world it does not stand to reason why it should be blackballing India if its stand on the Iranian nuclear programme, taken after due consideration of its national interest, coincides with that of the west. Similarly, given the country’s insatiable hunger for energy, it makes little sense for New Delhi to be deliberately inviting Tehran’s wrath.

The refrain from domestic critics is clear: India is placed between the devil and the deep sea. If New Delhi goes along with the west on the Iranian nuclear issue it will be burying all its pretensions of pursuing an ‘independent’ foreign policy; if it opposes the west the nascent India-US relationship with its ‘immense’ and mutually beneficial potential would have been nipped in the bud.

Such extreme views cannot be justified when there are so many sub-plots within the Iranian nuclear story. An obvious reason for Iran to take up a nuclear programme, complete with uranium enrichment, is that it finds itself surrounded by unfriendly or at least potentially hostile nations. Israel is known to have an ample stock of nuclear arsenal and a common grouse in Iran and the rest of the Muslim world is that the US has never raised a finger over Israel’s nuclear programme. Despite the Islamic brotherhood bond, not many Iranians are comfortable to see a Sunni Pakistan as a nuclear-armed nation even though, ironically, it was a Pakistani who had rendered initial help to Iran in developing its nuclear programme.

Iran’s relations with the US, which has a large presence in the region, have been going downhill for a very long time and the repetitive American threats to this ‘axis of evil’ has naturally fuelled Iranians nationalistic fervour for developing a nuclear arsenal. Iranians have long been suspicious of US and western designs on regaining control over its rich oil wealth.

Iran’s distance from the US and the rich and powerful nations of the west, otherwise engaged in ‘restraining’ Iran, has only increased in recent times. Iran is sore and feels betrayed by the western powers who under the garb of negotiations and dialogue had offered certain lollipops to Iran without, it would appear, taking any serious step to fulfil those promises.

Iran was to be admitted into the WTO; it was to be assured continuous supplies of US-made aircraft on civilian duties in Iran; the security needs of Iran were to be fully met. With clear blessings of the US, three European nations, Britain, France and Germany (EU-3) have been talking to Iran with this package to make it renounce its uranium enrichment programme and entrust the job to Russia.

Iran is being accused of summarily rejecting the deal. But the Iranian allegation is that the assurances on WTO, aircraft spare parts and security concerns are not being taken seriously. Iran’s fear is that the west will renege on these ‘assurances’ once it hands over its ‘right’ to enrich uranium to Russia and thus looses the trump card’ in its hand. Whether the Iranian complaints are justified or not one thing that is clear is that there is a huge trust deficit between Iran and the US-led western countries and so long as this is not corrected it will be unrealistic to expect Iran to say goodbye to its enrichment plans.

Iran realises the consequences of sanctions and other measures that will follow should it continue with its enrichment plan by ‘defying’ the west and world bodies. It has already threatened to create an oil crisis that will see prices escalate to hitherto unimaginable heights. Fast growing countries like India have to be ready to face a long period of adversity that may reverse the growth trend. Because of sanctions or on its own, Iran may fail to honour any assurances of oil and gas supplies to India.

Iran may not be down and out because it also realises that sanctions do not work. More important is the fact that except the US most of the countries that are trying to tame its uranium enrichment programme have strong trade ties with Iran. Moscow is a big arms supplier as well as the sole provider of its nuclear reactors. China has bought stakes in oil and gas exploration in Iran. EU has a $21 billion a year trade with Iran. Above all, the whole world knows that the US, shaken by its misadventure in Iraq, is in no position to invade Iran. Besides, an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities will see the region smoked with a large-scale Chernobyl.

But despite holding such aces, Iran needs to accept that this is not the moment when its leadership should be talking in tones that show it as irresponsible or immature. The times when a nation could be wiped off the map are gone; by denying their existence, bad patches in history like the holocaust cannot be altered. Provocation is not the right tool to be used by a nation that has been pushed into the defensive. It is Iran which has to win friends and establish credibility before a wider audience.

As for India, in the end India will surely survive the pessimistic forecasts of becoming the foe of either Iran or the US. It is Iran which will have to face the fallout of the crisis if it decides to defy the west and continue with its uranium enrichment plan that is seen as a prelude to acquiring the nuclear bomb. If the west, led by the US, has its way Iran will be isolated and made to face harsh sanctions that will ultimately lead to enough civilian unrest for the west to fish in troubled waters. Iran, on its part, should be doing all it can to increase its sphere of friendship—unmindful of occasional bumps along the path.


Courtesy : Syndicate Features

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