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Volume 1, No. 7 - December 2001

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Kashmir Terrorism Update
Subodh Atal

The Post-Taliban Scenario in Kashmir

There are some voices suggesting that the decimation of the Taliban and the Al Qaida will open the doors for peace in Kashmir. Pakistani dictator Gen. Musharraf appeared to boost this viewpoint earlier this week when he commented that killing of civilians in Kashmir was terrorism. For the past 12 years, Pakistan has refused to use the term terrorism in the same sentence as Kashmir to avoid getting stuck with the ‘state-sponsor’ label itself.

At first glance this could be considered a positive sign, and even a reversal of Musharraf’s steamrolling of Agra. However, ground realities do not support such a conclusion. The blood is flowing in the killing fields of Kashmir valley as copiously as ever. The same day that Musharraf made the statement, Pakistani terrorists attacked policemen protecting the Banihal tunnel, a crucial connector of the valley to the rest of India. Cynicism of Pakistani designs on Kashmir is strong enough that one can not but wonder if Musharraf’s ISI agents are signalling the terrorists to focus on security forces. It is another matter whether killing of policemen protecting a tunnel, that is the only civilian land link over the Pir Panjal mountains, can be excluded from the definition of terrorism.

Such a shift in operations would help groups like the Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Toiba avert the terrorism label, which has now been proven to bring about certain lethal consequences as the Taliban and the Al Qaida, as well as their Jaish-e-Mohammed and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen compatriots have discovered. Indeed, the last two weeks have seen a near-daily series of successful attacks on Indian security forces, and dozens on either side have died.

However, terrorism-free insurgency is an oxymoron. Statistics for the past week put rest to any doubts. While 52 Pakistani terrorists and 25 Indian security personnel died during this period, 19 civilians were also killed in terrorist activity, keeping Kashmir at the top of the global terrorism hotspot list. Today six villagers were mowed down in Udhampur region. Four of them were Hindus. Yesterday Pakistani terrorists killed the sarpanch of a village in the same region in southern Kashmir, ostensibly because he cooperated with Indian security forces to keep his village free of terrorists. The terrorists have also kept up their pressure on politicians. A Congress party local Hindu politician was kidnapped in Kathua yesterday and later was shot to death. Earlier in the week, several politicians, teachers and other civilians had been killed by terrorists.

It is plausible that Musharraf’s comments are directed to his audience in the US State and Defense Departments, hoping to convince them of his new-found love for combating terrorism. Official Pakistan will likely become more vocal against civilian killings in Kashmir, while continuing to provide military and financial aid to groups that target security personnel in higher proportions.


Fissures in Hizbul Mujahideen

Hizbul is the only terrorist group operating in Jammu and Kashmir which is not overwhelmingly foreign in its composition, and has been less vocal in its support of the Taliban and Al Qaida, compared to the Lashkar, Jaish and Harkat groups. This may give it more legitimacy under the new anti-terror mood of the world. Former Pakistani Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto, referred to foreign fighters in Kashmir as ‘terrorist’, leaving one to assume that she was keeping her options open on Hizbul.

Hizbul’s local roots also mean that its cadre is less than enthusiastic about continuing the senseless bloodletting for a second decade. At one time Hizbul was the ISI favorite, but eventually the Pakistani handlers realized that trusting members of the hardened Al Qaida-related groups was a better bet to keep the insurgency boiling.

That there is internal debate among Hizbul members is clear from the recent past, when its field commander, Abdul Majid Dar, declared a short-lived ceasefire in July 2000, only to be countermanded by Syed Salahuddin, the Pakistan-anointed head of the Untied Jehad Council. During the past week, these differences came to the surface again as one of the field commanders suggested that Hizbul could participate in the upcoming assembly elections.

Such a scenario would have been a nightmare for the ISI. Everyone knows that if the local terrorist groups lay down their arms and participate in the Indian election process, Pakistan would lose the remnants of its claim to the state. The ISI panicked, and asked Salahuddin to recall all the Hizbul field commanders, including Dar. It is not known if all the commanders will comply with those orders, however, the Hizbul has already sent new field commanders into the state to ensure loyalty to the Pakistani cause.


To Coup or not to Coup: Is the Nuclear Scenario Preventing an Extremist Takeover in Pakistan?

Janes Foreign Report (Nov. 27, 2001), indicates that Israeli, US, Indian and British special forces are training, and on the ready, to extract Pakistani nuclear weapons in the case of an extremist coup that hands power to forces that overtly support the Al Qaida. Reports that Musharraf’s wife checked out homes in Washington DC on their recent trip to the United States support the theory that the Pakistani dictator knows his days are numbered.

Whether such an extraction would be successful is not clear, considering that Pakistan has had plenty of time to secure the weapons, and is even using decoy warheads to impede would be commando raids on its nuclear arsenal. In either case, pro-Al Qaida Pakistani generals are certain to be aware of the possibility that a coup would result in the loss of most, if not all, of the nuclear weapons. This would leave Pakistan as vulnerable as Afghanistan. It is quite possible that this realization has discouraged and postponed such a coup attempt.

Until September 11, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal was best known as the deterrent that prevented India from invading Pakistan and destroying its terrorist centers which train and send killers to Kashmir. However, now those weapons are being looked upon by the United States as a direct threat. While Pakistani nuclear missiles can not reach the American continent, they could be targeted at American bases in the Middle East, and now around Afghanistan.

While a coup holds immediate dangers for India and the United States, and even Israel, a resultant neutralization of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is bound to bring peace to Jammu and Kashmir state, and peace of mind to the rest of the world.


Legislating Terrorism Away

The Indian government has promulgated the new Prevention of Terrorism Ordinance (POTO) which brings back some of the provisions of the long-expired TADA act. POTO includes strong measures to identify and bring to justice groups and individuals that are participating in terrorist activity, or are active supporters. Considerable debate has already begun, with some in the opposition groups condemning POTO as a draconian measure. The government appears to have taken a reasonable stance in opening up POTO for debate. It may need the support of the main opposition party, the Congress, in order for POTO to be ratified by Parliament. The first effects of POTO were felt in Kashmir last week, when police seized the house of a person it accused of harboring terrorists. Predictably, there were demonstrations against the ordinance in Srinagar.

The Indian government will do well to remember that legislation is not the primary weapon, but one of many weapons needed in combating terrorism.


Markaz Chief Advises Muslims to Reread The Quran

Hafiz Muhammed Saeed, head of the Marka-ul-Dawa-il Irshad, and its armed wing the Lashkar-e-Toiba, in a new pronouncement, has asked Muslims to consult sections of the Quran to help them stand firm in the battlefield. He called for a speeding up of jihad and asked Muslims to assist the Taliban boldly. He termed the American action in Afghanistan ‘atrocities’ and charged the US with using poisonous gases in the campaign.

Lashkar-e-Toiba is a member of the Al Qaida fraternity, and has been accused of numerous civilian massacres and suicide bombings in Jammu and Kashmir. It has so far escaped the financial retribution of the US unlike the Jaish-e-Mohammed and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen groups.

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